Título
Proportional Variation of Potential Groundwater Recharge as a Result of Climate Change and Land-Use: A Study Case in Mexico
Autor
Jesús Guerrero
CARLOS ROBERTO FONSECA ORTIZ
MIGUEL ANGEL GOMEZ ALBORES
Laura María Sampedro
Sonia Emilia Silva-Gómez
Nivel de Acceso
Acceso Abierto
Materias
Resumen o descripción
Artículo en revista indexada
This work proposes a methodology whereby the selection of hydrologic and land-use cover change (LUCC) models allows an assessment of the proportional variation in potential groundwater recharge (PGR) due to both land-use cover change (LUCC) and some climate change scenarios for 2050. The simulation of PGR was made through a distributed model, based on empirical methods and the forecasting of LUCC stemming from a supervised classification with remote sensing techniques, both inside a Geographic Information System. Once the supervised classification was made, a Markov-based model was developed to predict LUCC to 2050. The method was applied in Acapulco, an important tourism center for Mexico. From 1986 to 2017, the urban area increased 5%, and by 2050 was predicted to cover 16%. In this period, a loss of 7 million m3 of PGR was assumed to be caused by the estimated LUCC. From 2017 to 2050, this loss is expected to increase between 73 and 273 million m3 depending on the considered climate change scenario, which is the equivalent amount necessary for satisfying the water needs of 6 million inhabitants. Therefore, modeling the variation in groundwater recharge can be an important tool for identifying water vulnerability, through both climate and land-use change.
CONACyT Centro de Ciencias de Desarrollo Regional (CCDR)
Editor
MDPI
Fecha de publicación
1 de octubre de 2020
Tipo de publicación
Artículo
Recurso de información
Fuente
2073-445X
Idioma
Inglés
Relación
9(10)
Audiencia
Estudiantes
Investigadores
Repositorio Orígen
REPOSITORIO INSTITUCIONAL DE LA UAEM
Descargas
121