Título

Present and future ecological niche modeling of garter snake species from the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt

Autor

ANDREA GONZALEZ FERNANDEZ

FRANCISCO JAVIER MANJARREZ SILVA

URI GARCIA VAZQUEZ

MARISTELLA D' ADDARIO

ARMANDO SUNNY GARCIA AGUILAR

Nivel de Acceso

Acceso Abierto

Licencia

http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0

Materias

Climate change - ([2167-8359]) Environmental niche models - ([2167-8359]) Thamnophis - ([2167-8359]) Potential distribution - ([2167-8359]) Land-use change - ([2167-8359]) CIENCIAS SOCIALES - (CTI)

Resumen o descripción

Articulo producto parcial de tesis doctoral

Land use and climate change are affecting the abundance and distribution of species. The Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB) is a very diverse region due to geological history, geographic position, and climate. It is also one of the most disturbed regions in Mexico. Reptiles are particularly sensitive to environmental changes due to their low dispersal capacity and thermal ecology. In this study, we define the important environmental variables (considering climate, topography, and land use) and potential distribution (present and future) of the five Thamnophis species present in TMVB. To do so, we used the maximum entropy modeling software (MAXENT). First, we modeled to select the most important variables to explain the distribution of each species, then we modeled again using only the most important variables and projected these models to the future considering a middle-moderate climate change scenario (rcp45), and land use and vegetation variables for the year 2050 (generated according to land use changes that occurred between years 2002 and 2011). Arid vegetation had an important negative effect on habitat suitability for all species, and minimum temperature of the coldest month was important for four of the five species. Thamnophis cyrtopsis was the species with the lowest tolerance to minimum temperatures. The maximum temperature of the warmest month was important for T. scalaris and T. cyrtopsis. Low percentages of agriculture were positive for T. eques and T. melanogaster but, at higher values, agriculture had a negative effect on habitat suitability for both species. Elevation was the most important variable to explain T. eques and T. melanogaster potential distribution while distance to Abies forests was the most important variable for T. scalaris and T. scaliger. All species had a high proportion of their potential distribution in the TMVB. However, according to our models, all Thamnophis species will experience reductions in their potential distribution in this region. T. scalaris will suffer the biggest reduction because this species is limited by high temperatures and will not be able to shift its distribution upward, as it is already present in the highest elevations of the TMVB.

Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México: 4047/2016SF. CONACYT

Editor

PeerJ

Fecha de publicación

11 de abril de 2018

Tipo de publicación

Artículo

Recurso de información

http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11799/98734

Fuente

2167-8359

Idioma

Inglés

Audiencia

Estudiantes

Investigadores

Repositorio Orígen

REPOSITORIO INSTITUCIONAL DE LA UAEM

Descargas

202