Escenarios futuros de eventos extremos de precipitación y temperatura en México

Future changes of precipitation and temperature extremes in Mexico

Ernesto Ramos Esteban (2024, [Tesis de maestría])

Diferentes estudios a escala mundial indican un incremento en frecuencia de eventos climáticos extremos debido al calentamiento global y sugieren que podrían intensificarse en el futuro. El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar los posibles cambios de 12 índices climáticos extremos (ICE) de precipitación y temperatura en 15 regiones de México, el sur de los Estados Unidos y Centroamérica para un período histórico (1981-2010), un futuro cercano (2021-2040), un futuro intermedio (2041-2060) y un futuro lejano (2080-2099). Se utilizó el reanálisis ERA5 como referencia en la evaluación histórica de los modelos climáticos globales (MCG) y para las proyecciones se analizaron los ICE de diez MCG del Proyecto de Intercomparación de Modelos Climáticos, fase 6 (CMIP6), de acuerdo con dos escenarios de Vías Socioeconómicas Compartidas (SSPs), uno de bajas emisiones (SSP2-4.5) y otro de altas emisiones (SSP3-7.0). Los MCG reproducen muy bien los índices extremos de temperatura histórica y los días consecutivos secos, pero subestiman la lluvia promedio y la lluvia extrema en las zonas más lluviosas desde el centro de México hasta Centroamérica. Históricamente, se observaron tendencias positivas de las temperaturas extremas (TXx y TNn) en todas las regiones, pero sólo en algunas regiones fueron significativas, mientras que los índices de lluvia extrema (R95p, R10mm y R20mm) presentaron tendencias negativas, pero pequeñas. Las proyecciones indican que las temperaturas extremas podrían seguir incrementándose en el futuro, desde 2° C hasta 5° C a mitad y final de siglo, respectivamente. La contribución de la precipitación extrema arriba del percentil 95 (R95p) se podría incrementar entre un 10 % y 30 %, especialmente en la región subtropical, mientras que la precipitación podría disminuir en las regiones tropicales. Este estudio es el primero que analiza los cambios futuros de índices extremos del CMIP6 a escala regional (en 15 regiones) de México, el sur de Estados Unidos y Centroamérica.

Global-scale studies indicate an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events due to global warming and suggest that they could further intensify in the future. This study aims to assess potential changes in 12 extreme climate indices (ECI) related to precipitation and temperature in 15 regions in Mexico, the southern United States, and Central America for different periods: a historical period (1981-2010), a near future (2021-2040), an intermediate future (2041-2060), and a far future (2080-2099). The ERA5 reanalysis was used as a reference for the historical evaluation of global climate models (GCMs), and ECI from ten GCMs of phase 6 (CMIP6) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project were employed for the projections and examined under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios, one characterized by low emissions (SSP2-4.5) and another representing high greenhouse gas emissions (SSP3-7.0). The GCMs reproduce historical extreme temperature indices and consecutive dry days very well. However, they underestimate average and extreme rainfall from central Mexico to Central America in the wetter areas. Historically, positive trends in extreme temperatures (TXx and TNn) were observed across all regions. However, statistical significance was only present in certain regions, while extreme rainfall indices (R95p, R10mm, and R20mm) exhibited small negative trends. The projections suggest that extreme temperatures could continue to increase in the future, from 2°C to 5°C by the mid and late century, respectively. The contribution of extreme precipitation above the 95th percentile (R95p) could increase by 10% to 30%, particularly in the subtropical regions, while precipitation might decrease in tropical regions. This study is the first to analyze future changes in extreme indices from CMIP6 at a regional scale (across 15 regions) in Mexico, the southern United States, and Central America.

Centroamérica, CMIP6, escenarios SSP, extremos climáticos, intercomparación de modelos climáticos, México Central America, climate extremes, CMIP6, intercomparison of climate models, Mexico, SSP scenarios CIENCIAS FÍSICO MATEMÁTICAS Y CIENCIAS DE LA TIERRA CIENCIAS DE LA TIERRA Y DEL ESPACIO OCEANOGRAFÍA OCEANOGRAFÍA FÍSICA (VE R 5603 .04) OCEANOGRAFÍA FÍSICA (VE R 5603 .04)

Modelo híbrido de sistemas energéticos para la evaluación del uso de energías renovables

Carlos Iván Torres González (2020, [Tesis de maestría])

En este trabajo proponemos un modelo híbrido para evaluar diferentes escenarios de generación de electricidad con energías renovables que maximiza el bienestar social desde la perspectiva económica contemplando un enfoque técnico sobre la estructura de costos de producción de electricidad. Adicionalmente, realizamos 2 simulaciones del modelo propuesto al sistema eléctrico de Baja California Sur para 10 períodos, contemplando 4 escenarios de producción limpia diferentes. De los resultados observados en ambas simulaciones podemos remarcar 2 puntos en términos de políticas públicas. El primer punto es la importancia de tener múltiples generadores que funcionen con combustibles renovables si se desea producir una proporción significativa de electricidad con FER. El segundo punto es el trade-off entre bienestar y emisiones de CO2. Los resultados sugieren que el aumento del consumo de electricidad es un elemento importante para aumentar el bienestar social. A su vez, el aumento de consumo eléctrico implica un aumento de producción, y por tanto un aumento de emisiones de CO2. Los resultados de la segunda simulación sugieren que con el aumento de la capacidad de generación limpia y costos eficientes, se pueden alcanzar niveles de bienestar casi iguales a los tradicionales, pero con la mitad de emisiones de CO2.

Electric power production -- Effect of renewable energy sources on -- Mexico -- Baja California Sur (State) -- 2015 -- Mathematical models. Carbon dioxide mitigation -- Effect of renewable energy sources on -- Mexico -- Baja California Sur (State) -- 2015 -- Mathematical models. CIENCIAS SOCIALES CIENCIAS SOCIALES

Movements of scalloped hammerhead sharks (Sphyrna lewini) at Cocos Island, Costa Rica and between oceanic islands in the Eastern Tropical Pacific

Elena Nalesso (2019, [Artículo])

Many species of sharks form aggregations around oceanic islands, yet their levels of residency and their site specificity around these islands may vary. In some cases, the waters around oceanic islands have been designated as marine protected areas, yet the conservation value for threatened shark species will depend greatly on how much time they spend within these protected waters. Eighty-four scalloped hammerhead sharks (Sphyrna lewini Griffith & Smith), were tagged with acoustic transmitters at Cocos Island between 2005–2013. The average residence index, expressed as a proportion of days present in our receiver array at the island over the entire monitoring period, was 0.52±0.31, implying that overall the sharks are strongly associated with the island. Residency was significantly greater at Alcyone, a shallow seamount located 3.6 km offshore from the main island, than at the other sites. Timing of presence at the receiver locations was mostly during daytime hours. Although only a single individual from Cocos was detected on a region-wide array, nine hammerheads tagged at Galapagos and Malpelo travelled to Cocos. The hammerheads tagged at Cocos were more resident than those visiting from elsewhere, suggesting that the Galapagos and Malpelo populations may use Cocos as a navigational waypoint or stopover during seasonal migrations to the coastal Central and South America. Our study demonstrates the importance of oceanic islands for this species, and shows that they may form a network of hotspots in the Eastern Tropical Pacific. © 2019 Nalesso et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

article, Cocos Island, human, monitoring, nonhuman, resident, shark, South America, animal, Costa Rica, environmental protection, island (geological), movement (physiology), physiology, season, shark, Animals, Conservation of Natural Resources, Costa CIENCIAS FÍSICO MATEMÁTICAS Y CIENCIAS DE LA TIERRA CIENCIAS DE LA TIERRA Y DEL ESPACIO OCEANOGRAFÍA OCEANOGRAFÍA

Maintenance of Coastal Surface Blooms by Surface Temperature Stratification and Wind Drift

MARY CARMEN RUIZ DE LA TORRE (2013, [Artículo])

Algae blooms are an increasingly recurrent phenomenon of potentially socio-economic impact in coastal waters globally and in the coastal upwelling region off northern Baja California, Mexico. In coastal upwelling areas the diurnal wind pattern is directed towards the coast during the day. We regularly found positive Near Surface Temperature Stratification (NSTS), the resulting density stratification is expected to reduce the frictional coupling of the surface layer from deeper waters and allow for its more efficient wind transport. We propose that the net transport of the top layer of approximately 2.7 kilometers per day towards the coast helps maintain surface blooms of slow growing dinoflagellate such as Lingulodinium polyedrum. We measured: near surface stratification with a free-rising CTD profiler, trajectories of drifter buoys with attached thermographs, wind speed and direction, velocity profiles via an Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler, Chlorophyll and cell concentration from water samples and vertical migration using sediment traps. The ADCP and drifter data agree and show noticeable current shear within the first meters of the surface where temperature stratification and high cell densities of L. polyedrum were found during the day. Drifters with 1m depth drogue moved towards the shore, whereas drifters at 3 and 5 m depth showed trajectories parallel or away from shore. A small part of the surface population migrated down to the sea floor during night thus reducing horizontal dispersion. The persistent transport of the surface bloom population towards shore should help maintain the bloom in favorable environmental conditions with high nutrients, but also increasing the potential socioeconomic impact of the blooms. The coast wise transport is not limited to blooms but includes all dissolved and particulate constituents in surface waters. © 2013 Ruiz-de la Torre et al.

chlorophyll, algal bloom, article, cell count, cell density, coastal waters, controlled study, dinoflagellate, Lingulodinium polyedrum, meteorological phenomena, Mexico, near surface temperature stratification, nonhuman, nutrient concentration, popul CIENCIAS FÍSICO MATEMÁTICAS Y CIENCIAS DE LA TIERRA CIENCIAS DE LA TIERRA Y DEL ESPACIO OCEANOGRAFÍA OCEANOGRAFÍA