High spatial resolution seasonal crop yield forecasting for heterogeneous maize environments in Oromia, Ethiopia

Kindie Tesfaye Vakhtang Shelia Pierre C. Sibiry Traore Dawit Solomon Gerrit Hoogenboom (2023, [Artículo])

Seasonal climate variability determines crop productivity in Ethiopia, where rainfed smallholder farming systems dominate in the agriculture production. Under such conditions, a functional and granular spatial yield forecasting system could provide risk management options for farmers and agricultural and policy experts, leading to greater economic and social benefits under highly variable environmental conditions. Yet, there are currently only a few forecasting systems to support early decision making for smallholder agriculture in developing countries such as Ethiopia. To address this challenge, a study was conducted to evaluate a seasonal crop yield forecast methodology implemented in the CCAFS Regional Agricultural Forecasting Toolbox (CRAFT). CRAFT is a software platform that can run pre-installed crop models and use the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) to produce probabilistic crop yield forecasts with various lead times. Here we present data inputs, model calibration, evaluation, and yield forecast results, as well as limitations and assumptions made during forecasting maize yield. Simulations were conducted on a 0.083° or ∼ 10 km resolution grid using spatially variable soil, weather, maize hybrids, and crop management data as inputs for the Cropping System Model (CSM) of the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT). CRAFT combines gridded crop simulations and a multivariate statistical model to integrate the seasonal climate forecast for the crop yield forecasting. A statistical model was trained using 29 years (1991–2019) data on the Nino-3.4 Sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) as gridded predictors field and simulated maize yields as the predictand. After model calibration the regional aggregated hindcast simulation from 2015 to 2019 performed well (RMSE = 164 kg/ha). The yield forecasts in both the absolute and relative to the normal yield values were conducted for the 2020 season using different predictor fields and lead times from a grid cell to the national level. Yield forecast uncertainties were presented in terms of cumulative probability distributions. With reliable data and rigorous calibration, the study successfully demonstrated CRAFT's ability and applicability in forecasting maize yield for smallholder farming systems. Future studies should re-evaluate and address the importance of the size of agricultural areas while comparing aggregated simulated yields with yield data collected from a fraction of the target area.

CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA CROP MODELLING DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS FORECASTING MAIZE

Closing the yield gap of soybean (Glycine max (L.) Merril) in Southern Africa: a case of Malawi, Zambia, and Mozambique

Siyabusa Mkuhlani Isaiah Nyagumbo (2023, [Artículo])

Introduction: Smallholder farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are increasingly producing soybean for food, feed, cash, and soil fertility improvement. Yet, the difference between the smallholder farmers’ yield and either the attainable in research fields or the potential from crop models is wide. Reasons for the yield gap include low to nonapplication of appropriate fertilizers and inoculants, late planting, low plant populations, recycling seeds, etc. Methods: Here, we reviewed the literature on the yield gap and the technologies for narrowing it and modelled yields through the right sowing dates and suitable high-yielding varieties in APSIM. Results and Discussion: Results highlighted that between 2010 and 2020 in SSA, soybean production increased; however, it was through an expansion in the cropped area rather than a yield increase per hectare. Also, the actual smallholder farmers’ yield was 3.8, 2.2, and 2.3 times lower than the attainable yield in Malawi, Zambia, and Mozambique, respectively. Through inoculants, soybean yield increased by 23.8%. Coupling this with either 40 kg ha−1 of P or 60 kg ha−1 of K boosted the yields by 89.1% and 26.0%, respectively. Overall, application of 21–30 kg ha-1 of P to soybean in SSA could increase yields by about 48.2%. Furthermore, sowing at the right time increased soybean yield by 300%. Although these technologies enhance soybean yields, they are not fully embraced by smallholder farmers. Hence, refining and bundling them in a digital advisory tool will enhance the availability of the correct information to smallholder farmers at the right time and improve soybean yields per unit area.

Decision Support Tools Digital Tools Site-Specific Recommendations CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS LEGUMES YIELDS SOYBEANS

Seasonal climate forecasts (SCFs) based risk management strategies: A case study of rainfed rice cultivation in India

Nand Lal Kushwaha Paresh Shirsath Dipaka Ranjan Sena (2022, [Artículo])

FResampler1 Seasonal Climate Forecasts Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA CLIMATE CHANGE DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS YIELDS RICE RISK MANAGEMENT

OPTIMIZING THE TRANSFER OF ENERGY IN A HEAT EXCHANGER MINIMIZING THE CORROSION PROBLEMS IN PIPES IN A HYDROELECTRIC POWER STATION USING DATA MINING AND SUPPORT VECTOR MACHINE

VICTOR MANUEL ZEZATTI FLORES GUSTAVO URQUIZA BELTRAN MIGUEL ANGEL BASURTO PENSADO LAURA LILIA CASTRO GOMEZ (2019, [Artículo])

This research is based on the operation tube heat exchangers, their use and problematic on hydroelectric power plants. It is based on the design heat exchanger tubes for industrial use, which took the parameters of operation, design, working fluids (air and water) and conditions to assemble a monitoring equipment at appropriate scale for the laboratory, with the necessary measurement instruments to analyze the behavior of heat energy transfer by means of thermocouples, the velocity of the air with a hot wire anemometer and the flow of water with a turbine flow meter, in pipes of different materials: copper, steel 1018 and stainless steel 316L, all in ideal conditions, and with this to found a comparative parameter with pipes of the same materials but under conditions of deterioration with the presence of forced oxidation and with the data mining and support vector machine can be minimized the corrosion problems in pipes.

INGENIERÍA Y TECNOLOGÍA CIENCIAS TECNOLÓGICAS Data Mining, Support Vector Machine, Pattern Recognition and Decision Support System, heat exchangers.

Implementation of a Nickel-Electroless Coating in Heat Exchanger Pipes Considering the Problem of the Environmental Conditions ofthe Cooling Water Without Recirculation to Increase the Effectiveness Under Uncertainty

VICTOR MANUEL ZEZATTI FLORES GUSTAVO URQUIZA BELTRAN MIGUEL ANGEL BASURTO PENSADO LAURA LILIA CASTRO GOMEZ JUAN CARLOS GARCIA CASTREJON (2022, [Artículo])

This research is based on the operation tube heat exchangers, their use and problematic on hydroelectric power plants. It is based on the design heat exchanger tubes for industrial use, which took the parameters of operation, design, working fluids (air and water) and conditions to assemble a monitoring equipment at appropriate scale for the laboratory, with the necessary measurement instruments to analyze the behavior of heat energy transfer by means of thermocouples, the velocity of the air with a hot wire anemometer and the flow of water with a turbine flow meter, in pipes of different materials: copper, steel 1018 and stainless steel 316L, all in ideal conditions, and with this to found a comparative parameter with pipes of the same materials but under conditions of deterioration with the presence of forced oxidation and with the data mining and support vector machine can be minimized the corrosion problems in pipes.

INGENIERÍA Y TECNOLOGÍA CIENCIAS TECNOLÓGICAS Data mining, Support Vector Machine, Pattern Recognition and Decision Support System, Heat exchangers

Dimensiones morales del retorno de migrantes adultos mayores en Durango, México

PERLA VANESSA DE LOS SANTOS AMAYA (2023, [Artículo])

"El presente escrito tiene por objetivo reflexionar sobre los argumentos morales que subyacen al retorno voluntario de personas mayores de Durango que vivieron y trabajaron en Estados Unidos de América. El acercamiento metodológico fue cualitativo, con 22 informantes mayores de 60 años de edad de diversos municipios del estado. Se encontró que, aunque este tipo de regreso se asume como un acto de libertad del sujeto, existen dimensiones estructurales, laborales, familiares y territoriales que determinan distintas lógicas para entender la llegada de connacionales en esta etapa de la vida. Se concluye que hay que abrir marcos de análisis sobre las migraciones y la vejez, dados los cambios crecientes en la dinámica global en que se insertan las movilidades humanas".

Moralidad. Decisión. Retorno voluntario. Envejecimiento. Vejez. CIENCIAS SOCIALES SOCIOLOGÍA PROBLEMAS SOCIALES CALIDAD DE VIDA CALIDAD DE VIDA

Can I speak to the manager? The gender dynamics of decision-making in Kenyan maize plots

Rachel Voss Zachary Gitonga Jason Donovan Mariana Garcia-Medina Pauline Muindi (2023, [Artículo])

Gender and social inclusion efforts in agricultural development are focused on making uptake of agricultural technologies more equitable. Yet research looking at how gender relations influence technology uptake often assumes that men and women within a household make farm management decisions as individuals. Relatively little is understood about the dynamics of agricultural decision-making within dual-adult households where individuals’ management choices are likely influenced by others in the household. This study used vignettes to examine decision-making related to maize plot management in 698 dual-adult households in rural Kenya. The results indicated a high degree of joint management of maize plots (55%), although some management decisions—notably those related to purchased inputs—were slightly more likely to be controlled by men, while other decisions—including those related to hiring of labor and maize end uses—were more likely to be made by women. The prevalence of joint decision-making underscores the importance of ensuring that both men’s and women’s priorities and needs are reflected in design and marketing of interventions to support maize production, including those related to seed systems, farmer capacity building, and input delivery.

Intrahousehold Jointness CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA GENDER HOUSEHOLDS MAIZE SEED SYSTEMS DECISION MAKING

Sistemas de producción sostenibles y redes de innovación

Jelle Van Loon (2022, [Objeto de congreso])

CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA PRODUCTION SYSTEMS INNOVATION PRODUCTION SYSTEMS AGRIFOOD SYSTEMS

Last mile seed delivery approaches in Sudan and beyond: an annotated bibliography

Hugo De Groote Paswel Marenya (2023, [Libro])

CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA SEED SYSTEMS SEED INDUSTRY BIBLIOGRAPHIES

Women, economic resilience, gender norms in a time of climate change: what do we know?

Cathy Farnworth Anne Rietveld Rachel Voss Angela Meentzen (2023, [Artículo])

This literature delves into 82 research articles, published between 2016 and 2022, to develop a deep understanding of how women manage their lives and livelihoods within their agrifood systems when these systems are being affected, sometimes devastatingly, by climate change. The Findings show that four core gender norms affect the ability of women to achieve economic resilience in the face of climate change operate in agrifood production systems. Each of these gender norms speaks to male privilege: (i) Men are primary decision-makers, (ii) Men are breadwinners, (iii) Men control assets, and (iv) Men are food system actors. These gender norms are widely held and challenge women’s abilities to become economically resilient. These norms are made more powerful still because they fuse with each other and act on multiple levels, and they serve to support other norms which limit women’s scope to act. It is particularly noteworthy that many institutional actors, ranging from community decision-makers to development partners, tend to reinforce rather than challenge gender norms because they do not critically review their own assumptions.

However, the four gender norms cited are not hegemonic. First, there is limited and intriguing evidence that intersectional identities can influence women’s resilience in significant ways. Second, gender norms governing women’s roles and power in agrifood systems are changing in response to climate change and other forces, with implications for how women respond to future climate shocks. Third, paying attention to local realities is important – behaviours do not necessarily substantiate local norms. Fourth, women experience strong support from other women in savings groups, religious organisations, reciprocal labour, and others. Fifth, critical moments, such as climate disasters, offer potentially pivotal moments of change which could permit women unusually high levels of agency to overcome restrictive gender norms without being negatively sanctioned. The article concludes with recommendations for further research.

Economic Resilience Intersectional Identities Women Groups Support CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA ECONOMICS RESILIENCE CLIMATE CHANGE GENDER NORMS AGRIFOOD SYSTEMS WOMEN