Escenarios futuros de eventos extremos de precipitación y temperatura en México

Future changes of precipitation and temperature extremes in Mexico

Ernesto Ramos Esteban (2024, [Tesis de maestría])

Diferentes estudios a escala mundial indican un incremento en frecuencia de eventos climáticos extremos debido al calentamiento global y sugieren que podrían intensificarse en el futuro. El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar los posibles cambios de 12 índices climáticos extremos (ICE) de precipitación y temperatura en 15 regiones de México, el sur de los Estados Unidos y Centroamérica para un período histórico (1981-2010), un futuro cercano (2021-2040), un futuro intermedio (2041-2060) y un futuro lejano (2080-2099). Se utilizó el reanálisis ERA5 como referencia en la evaluación histórica de los modelos climáticos globales (MCG) y para las proyecciones se analizaron los ICE de diez MCG del Proyecto de Intercomparación de Modelos Climáticos, fase 6 (CMIP6), de acuerdo con dos escenarios de Vías Socioeconómicas Compartidas (SSPs), uno de bajas emisiones (SSP2-4.5) y otro de altas emisiones (SSP3-7.0). Los MCG reproducen muy bien los índices extremos de temperatura histórica y los días consecutivos secos, pero subestiman la lluvia promedio y la lluvia extrema en las zonas más lluviosas desde el centro de México hasta Centroamérica. Históricamente, se observaron tendencias positivas de las temperaturas extremas (TXx y TNn) en todas las regiones, pero sólo en algunas regiones fueron significativas, mientras que los índices de lluvia extrema (R95p, R10mm y R20mm) presentaron tendencias negativas, pero pequeñas. Las proyecciones indican que las temperaturas extremas podrían seguir incrementándose en el futuro, desde 2° C hasta 5° C a mitad y final de siglo, respectivamente. La contribución de la precipitación extrema arriba del percentil 95 (R95p) se podría incrementar entre un 10 % y 30 %, especialmente en la región subtropical, mientras que la precipitación podría disminuir en las regiones tropicales. Este estudio es el primero que analiza los cambios futuros de índices extremos del CMIP6 a escala regional (en 15 regiones) de México, el sur de Estados Unidos y Centroamérica.

Global-scale studies indicate an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events due to global warming and suggest that they could further intensify in the future. This study aims to assess potential changes in 12 extreme climate indices (ECI) related to precipitation and temperature in 15 regions in Mexico, the southern United States, and Central America for different periods: a historical period (1981-2010), a near future (2021-2040), an intermediate future (2041-2060), and a far future (2080-2099). The ERA5 reanalysis was used as a reference for the historical evaluation of global climate models (GCMs), and ECI from ten GCMs of phase 6 (CMIP6) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project were employed for the projections and examined under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios, one characterized by low emissions (SSP2-4.5) and another representing high greenhouse gas emissions (SSP3-7.0). The GCMs reproduce historical extreme temperature indices and consecutive dry days very well. However, they underestimate average and extreme rainfall from central Mexico to Central America in the wetter areas. Historically, positive trends in extreme temperatures (TXx and TNn) were observed across all regions. However, statistical significance was only present in certain regions, while extreme rainfall indices (R95p, R10mm, and R20mm) exhibited small negative trends. The projections suggest that extreme temperatures could continue to increase in the future, from 2°C to 5°C by the mid and late century, respectively. The contribution of extreme precipitation above the 95th percentile (R95p) could increase by 10% to 30%, particularly in the subtropical regions, while precipitation might decrease in tropical regions. This study is the first to analyze future changes in extreme indices from CMIP6 at a regional scale (across 15 regions) in Mexico, the southern United States, and Central America.

Centroamérica, CMIP6, escenarios SSP, extremos climáticos, intercomparación de modelos climáticos, México Central America, climate extremes, CMIP6, intercomparison of climate models, Mexico, SSP scenarios CIENCIAS FÍSICO MATEMÁTICAS Y CIENCIAS DE LA TIERRA CIENCIAS DE LA TIERRA Y DEL ESPACIO OCEANOGRAFÍA OCEANOGRAFÍA FÍSICA (VE R 5603 .04) OCEANOGRAFÍA FÍSICA (VE R 5603 .04)

Contratos inteligentes para la gestión de datos de sensado móvil y vestible para aplicaciones en salud

Smart contracts for mobile and wearable sensing data management for health applications

José Ricardo Cedeño García (2023, [Tesis de maestría])

El aumento en la producción de datos derivado de la adopción de tecnologías móviles y de IoT está revolucionando la salud, pero también plantea importantes retos éticos y de privacidad. Los recientes avances en el aprendizaje automático han resaltado la importancia de recopilar y etiquetar datos correctamente, en especial para fines críticos, como el desarrollo de aplicaciones para cuidados médicos. La recopilación de datos médicos para tareas de aprendizaje automático presenta limitaciones en cuanto a la cantidad, variedad y calidad de las fuentes disponibles. Una forma de abordar este dilema es el uso de Blockchain para la recopilación y el uso de datos de pacientes. El anonimato de una red centralizada permite proteger la identidad del paciente. La estructura formada por nodos permite que la información esté siempre disponible y no dependa de un servidor principal. La inmutabilidad de los registros en la cadena garantiza la trazabilidad inequívoca del flujo de los datos del paciente. Por último, los mecanismos de consenso y recompensa de la red podrían motivar a nuevos usuarios a participar del sensado activo. Presentamos TRHEAD, una arquitectura de referencia basada en la Blockchain para recopilar datos sanitarios, firmar consentimientos, anotar datos y obtener crédito por los mismos, permitiendo a los usuarios rastrear el uso de sus datos, a los científicos rastrear su procedencia y proteger al mismo tiempo la privacidad de los pacientes. Exponemos dos implementaciones de nuestra arquitectura aplicadas a distintas campañas de sensado para comprobar su viabilidad, así como los resultados de su aplicación en estos escenarios y las conclusiones que desprendieron de su análisis. Dado que uno de los objetivos principales de TRHEAD es la recopilación de datos mediante sensado activo para el entrenamiento legal/consciente de modelos de aprendizaje automático, se realizó el entrenamiento de un modelo con los datos obtenidos de la campaña de sensado correspondiente a imágenes de rostros humanos, con el fin de detectar estados de ánimo. Finalmente se discute el papel de TRHEAD en el aseguramiento del trato justo y consciente de la información de los pacientes y el camino por recorrer en el perfeccionamiento de la arquitectura.

The increase in data production resulting from the adoption of mobile and IoT technologies is revolutionizing healthcare, but it also poses significant ethical and privacy challenges. Recent advances in machine learning have highlighted the importance of collecting and labeling data correctly, especially for critical purposes such as deploying healthcare software. Collecting medical data for machine learning tasks presents limitations in terms of the quantity, variety, and quality of available sources. One way to address this dilemma is the use of Blockchain for the collection and use of patient data. The anonymity of a centralized network allows the patient’s identity to be protected. The structure formed by nodes allows information to be always available and not dependent on a main server. The immutability of the records in the chain guarantees the unequivocal traceability of the flow of patient data. Finally, the network’s consensus and reward mechanisms could motivate new users to participate in active sensing. We present TRHEAD, a Blockchain-based reference architecture for collecting healthcare data, signing consents, annotating data and getting credit for it, allowing users to track the use of their data, scientists to track its provenance while protecting patients privacy. We present two implementations of our architecture applied to different sensing campaigns to test their feasibility, as well as the results of their application in these scenarios and the conclusions drawn from those results. Since one of the main objectives of TRHEAD is the collection of data through active sensing for the legal/conscious training of machine learning models, a model was trained with the data obtained from the sensing campaign corresponding to images of human faces, in order to detect moods. Finally, the role of TRHEAD in ensuring the fair and conscientious treatment of patient information and the road ahead in refining the architecture is discussed.

Contratos Inteligentes, Blockchain, Privacidad, Aprendizaje de Máquina Etico, Recopilación Consciente de Datos, Consentimiento, Arquitectura de Referencia Smart Contracts, Blockchain, Privacy, Ethical Machine Learning, Conscious Data Collection, Consent, Reference Architecture INGENIERÍA Y TECNOLOGÍA CIENCIAS TECNOLÓGICAS TECNOLOGÍA DE LOS ORDENADORES INTELIGENCIA ARTIFICIAL INTELIGENCIA ARTIFICIAL

Offshore wind energy climate projection using UPSCALE climate data under the RCP8.5 emission scenario

MARKUS SEBASTIAN GROSS (2016, [Artículo])

In previous work, the authors demonstrated how data from climate simulations can be utilized to estimate regional wind power densities. In particular, it was shown that the quality of wind power densities, estimated from the UPSCALE global dataset in offshore regions of Mexico, compared well with regional high resolution studies. Additionally, a link between surface temperature and moist air density in the estimates was presented. UPSCALE is an acronym for UK on PRACE (the Partnership for Advanced Computing in Europe)-weather-resolving Simulations of Climate for globAL Environmental risk. The UPSCALE experiment was performed in 2012 by NCAS (National Centre for Atmospheric Science)- Climate, at the University of Reading and the UK Met Office Hadley Centre. The study included a 25.6-year, five-member ensemble simulation of the HadGEM3 global atmosphere, at 25km resolution for present climate conditions. The initial conditions for the ensemble runs were taken from consecutive days of a test configuration. In the present paper, the emphasis is placed on the single climate run for a potential future climate scenario in the UPSCALE experiment dataset, using the Representation Concentrations Pathways (RCP) 8.5 climate change scenario. Firstly, some tests were performed to ensure that the results using only one instantiation of the current climate dataset are as robust as possible within the constraints of the available data. In order to achieve this, an artificial time series over a longer sampling period was created. Then, it was shown that these longer time series provided almost the same results than the short ones, thus leading to the argument that the short time series is sufficient to capture the climate. Finally, with the confidence that one instantiation is sufficient, the future climate dataset was analysed to provide, for the first time, a projection of future changes in wind power resources using the UPSCALE dataset. It is hoped that this, in turn, will provide some guidance for wind power developers and policy makers to prepare and adapt for climate change impacts on wind energy production. Although offshore locations around Mexico were used as a case study, the dataset is global and hence the methodology presented can be readily applied at any desired location. © Copyright 2016 Gross, Magar. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reprod

atmosphere, climate change, Europe, Mexico, sampling, time series analysis, university, weather, wind power, climate, risk, theoretical model, wind, Climate, Models, Theoretical, Risk, Wind CIENCIAS FÍSICO MATEMÁTICAS Y CIENCIAS DE LA TIERRA CIENCIAS DE LA TIERRA Y DEL ESPACIO OCEANOGRAFÍA OCEANOGRAFÍA

¿Desvinculación o decrecimiento? Un marco analítico para abordar la transición socioecológica desde los estudios urbanos

Jerónimo Aurelio Díaz Marielle (2023, [Artículo])

Artículo número 1 de la Sección Articulos de Investigación.

La transición socioecológica se perfila como un nuevo paradigma científico centrado en las interacciones sociedad-naturaleza y es, al mismo tiempo, la punta de lanza de una nueva agenda urbana y ambiental que no está exenta de contradicciones y dilemas. Con un pie en la divulgación de los conceptos y las metodologías que conforman este paradigma, y con otro en el análisis sociológico de los nuevos ecologismos, el artículo ofrece una revisión de dos corrientes de ecología política que buscan orientar el sentido de la transición: la desvinculación ecológica y el decrecimiento. La primera coloca sus expectativas en el desarrollo tecnológico y el mercado, es favorable al modelo de la ciudad compacta y promueve las llamadas soluciones basadas en la naturaleza. La segunda reconoce el valor de los saberes urbanos vernáculos, pero apela a la descentralización de las urbes y pugna por una reducción equitativa y democrática de los estándares de vida de la población. El artículo concluye que los estudios urbanos (en particular la sociología urbana y la planeación territorial) pueden contribuir a comprender el funcionamiento de los metabolismos urbanos y aportar soluciones a las dificultades que impiden el tránsito hacia una sociedad sustentable, esto es, una sociedad que sea capaz de autolimitarse, ajustando su metabolismo a los ciclos y a los tiempos que requiere la naturaleza para regenerarse.

The socio-ecological transition is emerging as a new scientific paradigm focused on the interactions between society and nature, and at the same time, it is the spearhead of a new urban and environmental agenda. With one foot in the dissemination of the concepts and methodologies that make up this paradigm, and with the other in the sociological analysis of the new environmental movements, the article offers a review of two political ecology forces that seek to guide the direction of the transition: ecological decoupling and degrowth. The former places its expectations on technological development and the market, is favorable to the compact city model and promotes so-called nature-based solutions. The latter recognizes the value of vernacular urban knowledge, but calls for the decentralization of cities and advocates for an equitable and democratic reduction of the population standards of living. The article concludes that urban studies (particularly urban sociology and territorial planning) can contribute to understanding the functioning of urban metabolisms and providing ways to address social inertia regarding climate change.

Cambio climático, metabolismo urbano, planeación territorial. Climate change, urban metabolism, territorial planning. HUMANIDADES Y CIENCIAS DE LA CONDUCTA CIENCIAS DE LAS ARTES Y LAS LETRAS ARQUITECTURA URBANISMO

Contrasting spatial patterns in active-fire and fire-suppressed mediterranean climate old-growth mixed conifer forests

Danny L. Fry  (2014, [Artículo])

In Mediterranean environments in western North America, historic fire regimes in frequent-fire conifer forests are highly variable both temporally and spatially. This complexity influenced forest structure and spatial patterns, but some of this diversity has been lost due to anthropogenic disruption of ecosystem processes, including fire. Information from reference forest sites can help management efforts to restore forests conditions that may be more resilient to future changes in disturbance regimes and climate. In this study, we characterize tree spatial patterns using four-ha stem maps from four old-growth, Jeffrey pine-mixed conifer forests, two with active-fire regimes in northwestern Mexico and two that experienced fire exclusion in the southern Sierra Nevada. Most of the trees were in patches, averaging six to 11 trees per patch at 0.007 to 0.014 ha-1, and occupied 27-46% of the study areas. Average canopy gap sizes (0.04 ha) covering 11-20% of the area were not significantly different among sites. The putative main effects of fire exclusion were higher densities of single trees in smaller size classes, larger proportion of trees (≥56%) in large patches (≥10 trees), and decreases in spatial complexity. While a homogenization of forest structure has been a typical result from fire exclusion, some similarities in patch, single tree, and gap attributes were maintained at these sites. These within-stand descriptions provide spatially relevant benchmarks from which to manage for structural heterogeneity in frequent-fire forest types.

article, climate, controlled study, ecosystem fire history, forest structure, geographic distribution, geographic mapping, land use, mathematical computing, mathematical model, Mexico, spatial analysis, taiga, United States, comparative study, conife CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA

Do marine reserves increase prey for California sea lions and Pacific harbor seals?

ALEJANDRO ARIAS DEL RAZO (2019, [Artículo])

Community marine reserves are geographical areas closed to fishing activities, implemented and enforced by the same fishermen that fish around them. Their main objective is to recover commercial stocks of fish and invertebrates. While marine reserves have proven successful in many parts of the world, their success near important marine predator colonies, such as the California sea lion (Zalophus californianus) and the Pacific harbor seal (Phoca vitulina richardii), is yet to be analyzed. In response to the concerns expressed by local fishermen about the impact of the presence of pinnipeds on their communities’ marine reserves, we conducted underwater surveys around four islands in the Pacific west of the Baja California Peninsula: two without reserves (Todos Santos and San Roque); one with a recently established reserve (San Jeronimo); and, a fourth with reserves established eight years ago (Natividad). All these islands are subject to similar rates of exploitation by fishing cooperatives with exclusive rights. We estimated fish biomass and biodiversity in the seas around the islands, applying filters for potential California sea lion and harbor seal prey using known species from the literature. Generalized linear mixed models revealed that the age of the reserve has a significant positive effect on fish biomass, while the site (inside or outside of the reserve) did not, with a similar result found for the biomass of the prey of the California sea lion. Fish biodiversity was also higher around Natividad Island, while invertebrate biodiversity was higher around San Roque. These findings indicate that marine reserves increase overall fish diversity and biomass, despite the presence of top predators, even increasing the numbers of their potential prey. Community marine reserves may help to improve the resilience of marine mammals to climate-driven phenomena and maintain a healthy marine ecosystem for the benefit of both pinnipeds and fishermen. © 2019 Arias-Del-Razo et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

Article, biodiversity, biomass, climate change, ecosystem resilience, environmental exploitation, fish stock, fishing, marine environment, marine invertebrate, nonhuman, Phoca vitulina, Pinnipedia, prey searching, Zalophus californianus, animal, biom BIOLOGÍA Y QUÍMICA CIENCIAS DE LA VIDA BIOLOGÍA ANIMAL (ZOOLOGÍA) BIOLOGÍA ANIMAL (ZOOLOGÍA)

Assessing the Response of Nematode Communities to Climate Change-Driven Warming: A Microcosm Experiment

RUTH GINGOLD WERMUTH (2013, [Artículo])

Biodiversity has diminished over the past decades with climate change being among the main responsible factors. One consequence of climate change is the increase in sea surface temperature, which, together with long exposure periods in intertidal areas, may exceed the tolerance level of benthic organisms. Benthic communities may suffer structural changes due to the loss of species or functional groups, putting ecological services at risk. In sandy beaches, free-living marine nematodes usually are the most abundant and diverse group of intertidal meiofauna, playing an important role in the benthic food web. While apparently many functionally similar nematode species co-exist temporally and spatially, experimental results on selected bacterivore species suggest no functional overlap, but rather an idiosyncratic contribution to ecosystem functioning. However, we hypothesize that functional redundancy is more likely to observe when taking into account the entire diversity of natural assemblages. We conducted a microcosm experiment with two natural communities to assess their stress response to elevated temperature. The two communities differed in diversity (high [HD] vs. low [LD]) and environmental origin (harsh vs. moderate conditions). We assessed their stress resistance to the experimental treatment in terms of species and diversity changes, and their function in terms of abundance, biomass, and trophic diversity. According to the Insurance Hypothesis, we hypothesized that the HD community would cope better with the stressful treatment due to species functional overlap, whereas the LD community functioning would benefit from species better adapted to harsh conditions. Our results indicate no evidence of functional redundancy in the studied nematofaunal communities. The species loss was more prominent and size specific in the HD; large predators and omnivores were lost, which may have important consequences for the benthic food web. Yet, we found evidence for alternative diversity-ecosystem functioning relationships, such as the Rivets and the Idiosyncrasy Model. © 2013 Gingold et al.

aquaculture, article, bacterivore, benthos, biodiversity, biomass, climate, community dynamics, controlled study, ecosystem, environmental temperature, microcosm, nematode, nonhuman, population abundance, species diversity, species richness, taxonomy CIENCIAS FÍSICO MATEMÁTICAS Y CIENCIAS DE LA TIERRA CIENCIAS DE LA TIERRA Y DEL ESPACIO OCEANOGRAFÍA OCEANOGRAFÍA

Climate change and the northern elephant seal (Mirounga angustirostris) population in Baja California, Mexico

M. Concepción García-Aguilar (2018, [Artículo])

The Earth0s climate is warming, especially in the mid- and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. The northern elephant seal (Mirounga angustirostris) breeds and haul-outs on islands and the mainland of Baja California, Mexico, and California, U.S.A. At the beginning of the 21st century, numbers of elephant seals in California are increasing, but the status of Baja California populations is unknown, and some data suggest they may be decreasing. We hypothesize that the elephant seal population of Baja California is experiencing a decline because the animals are not migrating as far south due to warming sea and air temperatures. Here we assessed population trends of the Baja California population, and climate change in the region. The numbers of northern elephant seals in Baja California colonies have been decreasing since the 1990s, and both the surface waters off Baja California and the local air temperatures have warmed during the last three decades. We propose that declining population sizes may be attributable to decreased migration towards the southern portions of the range in response to the observed temperature increases. Further research is needed to confirm our hypothesis; however, if true, it would imply that elephant seal colonies of Baja California and California are not demographically isolated which would pose challenges to environmental and management policies between Mexico and the United States. © 2018 García-Aguilar et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

air temperature, article, Baja California, climate change, human, Mirounga angustirostris, nonhuman, population size, warming, animal, ecosystem, environmental protection, Mexico, Phocidae, population density, population migration, temperature, Anima CIENCIAS FÍSICO MATEMÁTICAS Y CIENCIAS DE LA TIERRA CIENCIAS DE LA TIERRA Y DEL ESPACIO OCEANOGRAFÍA OCEANOGRAFÍA