Simulación y validación de la reparación de ductos en servicio por la deposición directa de soldadura

LUIS DANTE MELENDEZ MORALES (2023, [Tesis de doctorado])

El transporte de hidrocarburos por ductos enterrados es la forma más segura, confiable y económica para su suministro, estos pueden extenderse grandes longitudes territoriales e inclusive atravesar países con tal de satisfacer la demanda energética. No obstante, los ductos pueden sufrir daños provocados por el ambiente, su operación o bien provocados por terceros, siendo necesario que sean intervenidos reemplazando las secciones dañadas. Las regulaciones nacionales y tratados internacionales desalientan la liberación de grandes cantidades de gas natural a la atmósfera, por demás de que un paro de suministro conlleva a desabasto energético, multas y a costosas operaciones asociadas con la rehabilitación del ducto, forzando a soldar envolventes y accesorios sin detener la operación de los ductos, esto se conoce como “soldadura en servicio”. La soldadura en servicio es un proceso tecnológico, por el cual se puede efectuar la interconexión y la reparación de ductos mientras están en operación, previo a realizar estas actividades, se requiere que dos riesgos sean evaluados: agrietamiento por hidrógeno y quemada pasante. Las simulaciones actuales y validaciones evalúan estos riesgos de forma independiente, pero debido a su interdependencia estos riesgos deben evaluarse en conjunto. Un método de reparación que no es normalmente empleado, pero con un alto potencial debido a su simplicidad y versatilidad, es la deposición directa de soldadura. En la presente investigación, se realizó una simulación numérica fluido-termo-mecánica acoplada con validación experimental, de la reparación de un tubo con flujo presurizado conteniendo un defecto interno por la deposición directa de soldadura. Por medio de la cual, es posible predecir el comportamiento estructural del ducto mientras se realiza la reparación.

La simulación numérica se efectuó con el apoyo del software ANSYS versión académica 22R2, siendo esta una herramienta de última generación capaz de contribuir en la predicción de mecanismos complejos como lo es la soldadura en servicio, incrementando con ello la seguridad y confiabilidad de estas operaciones. Cabe hacer mención, que la regulación nacional prohíbe la reparación de defectos internos por la deposición directa de soldadura, esto se debe principalmente a la falta de investigaciones validadas que respalden su viabilidad. Los resultados demostraron la efectividad de emplear este método de reparación para restaurar la resistencia mecánica de los ductos. Las inspecciones por pruebas no destructivas superficiales, subsuperficiales y volumétricas, evidenciaron que no ocurrió agrietamiento inmediatamente al finalizar la reparación y retardada (posterior a por lo menos 12 horas después de haberse finalizada la reparación, tiempo suficiente para permitir la difusión de hidrógeno atómico a hidrógeno molecular). Las curvas de tendencia de temperatura mostraron buena aproximación teniéndose una diferencia máxima de 5.09% entre los resultados numéricos y experimental. Los resultados numéricos y experimentales de la deformación perimetral a lo largo de la longitud de la tubería mostraron un comportamiento similar con una diferencia significativa del 17.7% entre los valores numéricos atribuidos a la falta de información de entrada para las propiedades de la soldadura. El análisis estructural efectuado en este estudio emplea la estimación del riesgo de quemada pasante bajo presión interna, determinado por la ocurrencia de abultamiento radial localizado. Los resultados numéricos indican que no ocurre deformación plástica relevante. Se hace una fuerte recomendación para que las evaluaciones de análisis térmico empleen la morfología actual del defecto y no solo consideren el espesor remanente del tubo. De acuerdo con la revisión bibliográfica realizada y recientemente publicada, este tipo de simulación numérica acoplada con validación experimental de la reparación de ductos en servicio por deposición directa de soldadura para la reparación de defectos internos contemplando la prevención de quemada pasante y agrietamiento por hidrógeno no ha sido realizada con anterioridad.

Hydrocarbon transportation by buried pipelines is the safest, most reliable, and economical way for its supply; these can extend long territorial distances and even cross countries with the purpose of satisfying the energy demand. However, the pipelines can suffer damages caused by their environment, their operation, or provoked by third parties, making necessary interventions to replace the damaged sections. National regulations and international agreements discourage the release of large quantities of natural gas into the atmosphere; moreover, a stop in its supply entails an energetic shortage, fines, and expensive operations associated with the pipeline rehabilitation, forcing to weld sleeves and fittings without stop the pipeline operation, this is known as “In-Service Welding”. In-Service welding is a technological process for which interconnection and repair of pipelines can be made while they are in operation; before making it, two main risks need to be assessed: hydrogen cracking and burn-through. Current simulations and validations assess these risks independently, but due to their interdependence, these risks need to be assessed in conjunction. A repair method not normally used but with high potential due to its simplicity and versatility is the direct deposition of the weld. In the present research, a fluid-thermo-mechanical coupled numerical simulation with experimental validation was done of a repair on a pipe with pressurized flow having an internal defect by direct deposition of the weld. It is possible predict the structural behavior of a pipeline while the reparation is performed.

The numerical simulation was done with the support of ANSYS software academic version 22R2, the latest generation tool able to contribute to the prediction of complex mechanisms, as is in-service welding, increasing the security and confidence of these operations. It is worth mentioning that national regulation forbids the reparation of internal defects for direct deposition of the weld; the main reason is the lack of validated investigations supporting its viability. The results demonstrated the effectiveness of using this repair method to restore the mechanical strength of pipelines. Surface, sub-surface, and volumetric non-destructive inspections evidenced no cracking immediately to finish the repair and delayed (after at least 12 hours of having finished the repair, time enough to allow the hydrogen diffusion from atomic hydrogen to molecular hydrogen). Temperature tendency curves showed good approximations, having a maximum difference of 5.09 % between numerical and experimental. Perimeter deformation along the pipe length between numerical and experimental results displayed a similar behavior with a significant difference of 17.7% against numerical values attributed to the lack of input data for weld properties. The structural analysis performed in this study used the approach of the risk of burn-through under internal pressure determined by the occurrence of localized radial bulging. Numerical results indicated no relevant plastic strain occurs. It is strongly recommended that thermal analysis assessments using the actual defect morphology be performed, not only considering the remaining thickness of the pipe. According to the bibliographic revision performed and recently published, this kind of coupled numerical simulation of in-service repair or pipelines by direct deposition for repairing internal defects considering the prevention of burn-through and hydrogen cracking has not been done.

Ducto Soldadura en servicio Quemada pasante Agrietamiento por hidrógeno Reparación de soldadura Simulación numérica Pipeline In-service welding Burn-through Hydrogen cracking Weld repair Numerical simulation INGENIERÍA Y TECNOLOGÍA CIENCIAS TECNOLÓGICAS OTRAS ESPECIALIDADES TECNOLÓGICAS OTRAS ESPECIALIDADES TECNOLÓGICAS

Using an incomplete block design to allocate lines to environments improves sparse genome-based prediction in plant breeding

Osval Antonio Montesinos-Lopez ABELARDO MONTESINOS LOPEZ RICARDO ACOSTA DIAZ Rajeev Varshney Jose Crossa ALISON BENTLEY (2022, [Artículo])

Genomic selection (GS) is a predictive methodology that trains statistical machine-learning models with a reference population that is used to perform genome-enabled predictions of new lines. In plant breeding, it has the potential to increase the speed and reduce the cost of selection. However, to optimize resources, sparse testing methods have been proposed. A common approach is to guarantee a proportion of nonoverlapping and overlapping lines allocated randomly in locations, that is, lines appearing in some locations but not in all. In this study we propose using incomplete block designs (IBD), principally, for the allocation of lines to locations in such a way that not all lines are observed in all locations. We compare this allocation with a random allocation of lines to locations guaranteeing that the lines are allocated to

the same number of locations as under the IBD design. We implemented this benchmarking on several crop data sets under the Bayesian genomic best linear unbiased predictor (GBLUP) model, finding that allocation under the principle of IBD outperformed random allocation by between 1.4% and 26.5% across locations, traits, and data sets in terms of mean square error. Although a wide range of performance improvements were observed, our results provide evidence that using IBD for the allocation of lines to locations can help improve predictive performance compared with random allocation. This has the potential to be applied to large-scale plant breeding programs.

CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA Bayes Theorem Genome Inflammatory Bowel Diseases Models, Genetic Plant Breeding

Trophic ecology of Mexican Pacific harbor seal colonies using carbon and nitrogen stable isotopes

MARICELA JUAREZ RODRIGUEZ (2020, [Artículo])

There is limited information that provides a comprehensive understanding of the trophic ecology of Mexican Pacific harbor seal (Phoca vitulina richardii) colonies. While scat analysis has been used to determine the diet of some colonies, the integrative characterization of its feeding habits on broader temporal and spatial scales remains limited. We examined potential feeding grounds, trophic niche width, and overlap, and inferred the degree of dietary specialization using stable carbon and nitrogen isotope ratios (δ13C and δ15N) in this subspecies. We analyzed δ13C and δ15N on fur samples from pups collected at five sites along the western coast of the Baja California Peninsula, Mexico. Fur of natal coat of Pacific harbor seal pups begins to grow during the seventh month in utero until the last stage of gestation. Therefore pup fur is a good proxy for the mother's feeding habits in winter (∼December to March), based on the timing of gestation for the subspecies in this region. Our results indicated that the δ13C and δ15N values differed significantly among sampling sites, with the highest mean δ15N value occurring at the southernmost site, reflecting a well-characterized north to south latitudinal 15N-enrichment in the food web. The tendency identified in δ13C values, in which the northern colonies showed the most enriched values, suggests nearshore and benthic-demersal feeding habits. A low variance in δ13C and δ15N values for each colony (<1‰) and relatively small standard ellipse areas suggest a specialized foraging behavior in adult female Pacific harbor seals in Mexican waters. © 2020 Juárez-Rodríguez et al.

carbon, delta carbon 13, delta nitrogen 15, isotope, nitrogen, unclassified drug, carbon, nitrogen, Article, correlational study, feeding behavior, latitude, Mexico, nonhuman, organism colony, Pinnipedia, population abundance, species richness, troph BIOLOGÍA Y QUÍMICA CIENCIAS DE LA VIDA BIOLOGÍA ANIMAL (ZOOLOGÍA) BIOLOGÍA ANIMAL (ZOOLOGÍA)

Shopping for Ecological Indices? On the Use of Incidence-Based Species Compositional Similarity Measures

IAN MACGREGOR FORS FEDERICO ESCOBAR SARRIA JUAN FERNANDO ESCOBAR IBAÑEZ NATALIA MESA SIERRA FREDY ALEXANDER ALVARADO ROBERTO Rafael Rueda Hernández CLAUDIA ELIZABETH MORENO ORTEGA Ina Falfán ERICK JOAQUIN CORRO MENDEZ Eduardo Octavio Pineda Arredondo Amandine Bourg JOSE LUIS AGUILAR LOPEZ (2022, [Artículo])

"β-diversity has been under continuous debate, with a current need to better understand the way in which a new wave of measures work. We assessed the results of 12 incidence-based β-diversity indices. Our results of gradual species composition overlap between paired assemblages considering progressive differences in species richness show the following: (i) four indices (β-2, β-3, β-3.s, and βr) should be used cautiously given that results with no shared species retrieve results that could be misinterpreted; (ii) all measures conceived specifically as partitioned components of species compositional dissimilarities ought to be used as such and not as independent measures per se; (iii) the non-linear response of some indices to gradual species composition overlap should be interpreted carefully, and further analysis using their results as dependent variables should be performed cautiously; and (iv) two metrics (βsim and βsor) behave predictably and linearly to gradual species composition overlap. We encourage ecologists using measures of β-diversity to fully understand their mathematical nature and type of results under the scenario to be used in order to avoid inappropriate and misleading inferences."

Beta diversity Nestedness Replacement Richness difference Species turnover BIOLOGÍA Y QUÍMICA CIENCIAS DE LA VIDA BIOLOGÍA VEGETAL (BOTÁNICA) ECOLOGÍA VEGETAL ECOLOGÍA VEGETAL

Big data, small explanatory and predictive power: Lessons from random forest modeling of on-farm yield variability and implications for data-driven agronomy

Martin van Ittersum (2023, [Artículo])

Context: Collection and analysis of large volumes of on-farm production data are widely seen as key to understanding yield variability among farmers and improving resource-use efficiency. Objective: The aim of this study was to assess the performance of statistical and machine learning methods to explain and predict crop yield across thousands of farmers’ fields in contrasting farming systems worldwide. Methods: A large database of 10,940 field-year combinations from three countries in different stages of agricultural intensification was analyzed. Random effects models were used to partition crop yield variability and random forest models were used to explain and predict crop yield within a cross-validation scheme with data re-sampling over space and time. Results: Yield variability in relative terms was smallest for wheat and barley in the Netherlands and for wheat in Ethiopia, intermediate for rice in the Philippines, and greatest for maize in Ethiopia. Random forest models comprising a total of 87 variables explained a maximum of 65 % of cereal yield variability in the Netherlands and less than 45 % of cereal yield variability in Ethiopia and in the Philippines. Crop management related variables were important to explain and predict cereal yields in Ethiopia, while predictive (i.e., known before the growing season) climatic variables and explanatory (i.e., known during or after the growing season) climatic variables were most important to explain and predict cereal yield variability in the Philippines and in the Netherlands, respectively. Finally, model cross-validation for regions or years not seen during model training reduced the R2 considerably for most crop x country combinations, while for wheat in the Netherlands this was model dependent. Conclusion: Big data from farmers’ fields is useful to explain on-farm yield variability to some extent, but not to predict it across time and space. Significance: The results call for moderate expectations towards big data and machine learning in agronomic studies, particularly for smallholder farms in the tropics where model performance was poorest independently of the variables considered and the cross-validation scheme used.

Model Accuracy Model Precision Linear Mixed Models CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA MACHINE LEARNING SUSTAINABLE INTENSIFICATION BIG DATA YIELDS MODELS AGRONOMY

Polydomus karssenii gen. nov. sp. nov. is a dark septate endophyte with a bifunctional lifestyle parasitising eggs of plant parasitic cyst nematodes (Heterodera spp.)

Samad Ashrafi Abdelfattah DABABAT Maria Finckh Marc Stadler Wolfgang Maier (2023, [Artículo])

Plant Parasitic Nematodes Nematode's Egg Parasites CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA ENDOPHYTES NEMATOPHAGOUS FUNGI NEW SPECIES PHYLOGENY PLANT NEMATODES TAXONOMY

Unsupervised segmentation and clustering time series approach to Southern Africa rainfall regime changes

Lovemore  Chipindu Walter Mupangwa Isaiah Nyagumbo Mainassara Zaman-Allah (2023, [Artículo])

Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Facebook Prophet Hidden Markov Model Regression Regression with Hidden Logistic Process CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA COASTAL AREAS SEMIARID ZONES SUBHUMID ZONES RAINFALL CLIMATE CHANGE

Seed integrity, effect of temperature and storage time on germination of Populus luziarum and P. primaveralepensis, endangered subtropical species from Mexico

César Jacobo Pereira MIGUEL ANGEL MUÑIZ CASTRO JOSE ANTONIO VAZQUEZ GARCIA Joel David Flores Rivas ALEJANDRO MUÑOZ URIAS FRANCISCO MARTIN HUERTA MARTINEZ (2022, [Artículo])

"Background: Populus luziarum and P. primaveralepensis are endemic species of western Mexico; growing in riparian forests they are critically endangered. The best way to conserve their seeds is unknown, which could be limiting for their conservation.

Hypothesis: The germinability of both subtropical species is like that of boreal and template Salicaceae species that disperse seeds in spring and early summer, as they germinate quickly with high percentages, and rapidly lose their viability when stored at ambient temperature.

Studied species: Populus luziarum and P. primaveralepensis. Study site and dates: Western Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt. Jalisco, Mexico. October 2019.

Methods: The physical integrity of the seeds was assessed by X-ray imaging and compared with germinability. In addition, the effect of storage time (nine weeks) under two temperatures (4 and 21 °C) on the percentage and mean germination rate was evaluated.

Results: No significant differences were found between physical integrity and germination in freshly collected seeds for both species. Germination in the first 24 hrs was 91 and 95 % for Populus luziarum and P. primaveralepensis, respectively (week 0). Germination percentages were lower when stored at 21 °C, but P. primaveralepensis was decreased more slowly.

Conclusions: Seeds of subtropical Populus respond similarly to those of species from temperate and boreal climates with early seed dispersal, a crucial condition for establishing ex situ reforestation and conservation programs."

Salicaceae Seed physical integrity Seed storage conditions Subtropical endemic species White poplars BIOLOGÍA Y QUÍMICA CIENCIAS DE LA VIDA BIOLOGÍA VEGETAL (BOTÁNICA) BIOLOGÍA VEGETAL (BOTÁNICA)

Reciprocal recurrent selection based on genetic complementation: An efficient way to build heterosis in diploids due to directional dominance

GIOVANNY COVARRUBIAS-PAZARAN Christian Werner Dorcus Gemenet (2023, [Artículo])

Selection Strategies Reciprocal Recurrent Selection Dominance-Based Heterosis CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA GENETICS HETEROSIS MAIZE HYBRIDS FOOD SECURITY COMBINING ABILITY

Point placement of late vegetative stage nitrogen splits increase the productivity, N-use efficiency and profitability of tropical maize under decade long conservation agriculture

Hari Sankar Nayak C.M. Parihar Shankar Lal Jat ML JAT Ahmed Abdallah (2022, [Artículo])

Non-Linear Growth Model Nitrogen Remobilization Right Placement Precision Nitrogen Management CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA GROWTH MODELS NITROGEN NUTRIENT MANAGEMENT