Calibrated multi-model ensemble seasonal prediction of Bangladesh summer monsoon rainfall

Nachiketa Acharya Carlo Montes Timothy Joseph Krupnik (2023)

Bangladesh summer monsoon rainfall (BSMR), typically from June through September (JJAS), represents the main source of water for multiple sectors. However, its high spatial and interannual variability makes the seasonal prediction of BSMR crucial for building resilience to natural disasters and for food security in a climate-risk-prone country. This study describes the development and implementation of an objective system for the seasonal forecasting of BSMR, recently adopted by the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD). The approach is based on the use of a calibrated multi-model ensemble (CMME) of seven state-of-the-art general circulation models (GCMs) from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble project. The lead-1 (initial conditions of May for forecasting JJAS total rainfall) hindcasts (spanning 1982–2010) and forecasts (spanning 2011–2018) of seasonal total rainfall for the JJAS season from these seven GCMs were used. A canonical correlation analysis (CCA) regression is used to calibrate the raw GCMs outputs against observations, which are then combined with equal weight to generate final CMME predictions. Results show, compared to individual calibrated GCMs and uncalibrated MME, that the CCA-based calibration generates significant improvements over individual raw GCM in terms of the magnitude of systematic errors, Spearman's correlation coefficients, and generalised discrimination scores over most of Bangladesh areas, especially in the northern part of the country. Since October 2019, the BMD has been issuing real-time seasonal rainfall forecasts using this new forecast system.

Article

Multi-Model Ensemble Seasonal Forecasting CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA CLIMATE SERVICES FORECASTING MONSOONS

Rainfall water quality at Atlixco, Puebla

Margarita Teutli Andrés Armando Sánchez Erendira Moreno Gutierrez (2021)

This work reports the follow up of rainfall water quality at Atlixco, Puebla during the 2018 season. The main objective of this work was to evaluate how height and pollutants define the quality of water precipitated. Samples were collected at the roof of a house in Atlixco center, and others at the roof of a convent located at the San Miguel Hill, this represents a 44 m difference in height. Chemical composition was analyzed for 19 physicochemical parameters using gravimetric and spectrophotometric techniques. Obtained results were compared with drinking water standards finding that Pb and Cd contents are exceeded. Also, it was found a strong contribution of terrestrial sources since the marine rates are above unit, as well as excess concentrations whose values go from negative to positive. Finally, Pearson correlation was obtained finding that most of chemical parameters correlations are in disagreement for both sites, fact which confirms that ionic content is strongly influenced by anthropogenic sources.

Article

Artículo

rainfall ionic content marine rates excess concentrations Lluvia contenido iónico cociente marino concentración en exceso Estudios urbanos CIENCIAS FÍSICO MATEMÁTICAS Y CIENCIAS DE LA TIERRA CIENCIAS FÍSICO MATEMÁTICAS Y CIENCIAS DE LA TIERRA

Influence of residue type and method of placement on dynamics of decomposition and nitrogen release in maize-wheat-mungbean cropping on permanent raised beds: a litterbag study

ML JAT Rajeev Gupta (2022)

Article

Decomposition Rate Nitrogen Release Placement Effect CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA CROP RESIDUES DEGRADATION NITROGEN PLACEMENT

Planting rice at monsoon onset could mitigate the impact of temperature stress on rice–wheat systems of Bihar, India

Carlo Montes Anton Urfels Eunjin Han Balwinder-Singh (2023)

Article

Rainy Season TIMESAT APSIM Agricultural Production Systems Simulator Climate Adaptation CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA RICE WHEAT MONSOONS WET SEASON CROP MODELLING CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION

Modeling the growth, yield and N dynamics of wheat for decoding the tillage and nitrogen nexus in 8-years long-term conservation agriculture based maize-wheat system

C.M. Parihar Dipaka Ranjan Sena Prakash Chand Ghasal Shankar Lal Jat Yashpal Singh Saharawat Mahesh Gathala Upendra Singh Hari Sankar Nayak (2024)

Context: Agricultural field experiments are costly and time-consuming, and their site-specific nature limits their ability to capture spatial and temporal variability. This hinders the transfer of crop management information across different locations, impeding effective agricultural decision-making. Further, accurate estimates of the benefits and risks of alternative crop and nutrient management options are crucial for effective decision-making in agriculture. Objective: The objective of this study was to utilize the Crop Environment Resource Synthesis CERES-Wheat model to simulate crop growth, yield, and nitrogen dynamics in a long-term conservation agriculture (CA) based wheat system. The study aimed to calibrate the model using data from a field experiment conducted during the 2019-20-2020-21 growing seasons and evaluation it with independent data from the year 2021–22. Method: Crop simulation models, such as the Crop Environment Resource Synthesis CERES-Wheat (DSSAT v 4.8), may provide valuable insights into crop growth and nitrogen dynamics, enabling decision makers to understand and manage production risk more effectively. Therefore, the present study employed the CERES-Wheat (DSSAT v 4.8) model and calibrated it using field data, including plant phenological phases, leaf area index, aboveground biomass, and grain yield from the 2019-20-2020-21 growing seasons. An independent dataset from the year 2021–22 was used for model evaluation. The model was used to investigate the relationship between growing degree days (GDD), temperature, nitrate and ammonical concentration in soil, and nitrogen uptake by the crop. Additionally, the study explored the impact of contrasting tillage practices and fertilizer nitrogen management options on wheat yields. The experimental site is situated at ICAR-Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI), New Delhi, representing Indian Trans-Gangetic Plains Zone (28o 40’N latitude, 77o 11’E longitude and an altitude of 228 m above sea level). The treatments consist of four nitrogen management options, viz., N0 (zero nitrogen), N150 (150 kg N ha−1 through urea), GS (Green seeker based urea application) and USG (urea super granules @150 kg N ha−1) in two contrasting tillage systems, i.e., CA-based zero tillage (ZT) and conventional tillage (CT). Result: The outcomes exhibited favorable agreement between the model’s simulations and the observed data for crop phenology (With less than 2 days variation in 50% onset of flowering), grain and biomass yield (Root mean square error; RMSE 336 kg ha−1 and 649 kg ha−1, respectively), and leaf area index (LAI) (RMSE 0.28 & normalized RMSE; nRMSE 6.69%). The model effectively captured the nitrate-N (NO3−-N) dynamics in the soil profile, exhibiting a remarkable concordance with observed data, as evident from its low RMSE = 12.39 kg ha−1 and nRMSE = 13.69%. Moreover, as it successfully simulated the N balance in the production system, the nitrate leaching and ammonia volatilization pattern as described by the model are highly useful to understand these critical phenomena under both conventional tillage (CT) and CA-based Zero Tillage (ZT) treatments. Conclusion: The study concludes that the DSSAT-CERES-Wheat model has significant potential to assess the impacts of tillage and nitrogen management practices on crop growth, yield, and soil nitrogen dynamics in the western Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP) region. By providing reliable forecasts within the growing season, this modeling approach can facilitate better planning and more efficient resource management. Future implications: The successful implementation of the DSSAT-CERES-Wheat model in this study highlights its applicability in assessing crop performance and soil dynamics. Future research should focus on expanding the model’s capabilities by reducing its sensitivity to initial soil nitrogen levels to refine its predictions further. Moreover, the model’s integration with decision support systems and real-time data can enhance its usefulness in aiding agricultural decision-making and supporting sustainable crop management practices.

Article

Nitrogen Dynamics Mechanistic Crop Growth Models Crop Simulation CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA NITROGEN CONSERVATION AGRICULTURE WHEAT MAIZE CROP GROWTH RATE SIMULATION MODELS

Metodología predictiva para el análisis de asiento trasero en pruebas de anclaje de cinturón de seguridad

Predictive methodology for rear seat analysis in seat belt anchorage testings

José Guadalupe Velasco Ortega GIOVANNI VIDAL FLORES (2023)

Se presenta una metodología a seguir para el análisis de un asiento trasero durante la prueba de anclaje del cinturón de seguridad, establecida en la norma FMVSS 210 por sus siglas en ingles Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards. Es importante destacar que el cinturón de seguridad reduce el riesgo de lesiones, y en caso de colisión, el cinturón ayuda a distribuir la fuerza del impacto en una superficie más grande es decir la estructura metálica del asiento, lo que se busca es minimizar el riesgo de lesiones graves. La metodología propuesta tiene el fin de predecir el desempeño como función del desplazamiento de la estructura metálica mediante el uso del elemento finito (FEM). En esta metodología, se analiza la menor cantidad de elementos que compone la estructura del asiento con el propósito de reducir el tiempo del análisis, considerando solo los elementos y componentes que tienen mayor efecto con el desempeño del cinturón de seguridad, generando el análisis más rápido y eficiente. Al contrastar los resultados obtenidos a través del análisis mediante elemento finito con las pruebas reales se determinó que el método FEM es eficaz para predecir los puntos débiles de la estructura metálica que influyen en el desplazamiento y/o deformación del asiento durante la prueba.

A methodology is presented for analysis of a rear seat during the Safety Belt Anchorage test established in FMVSS 210 [1], which stands for Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards. It is important to note that the safety belt reduces the risk of injury, and in the event of a collision, the belt helps distribute the force of the impact over a larger surface area, namely the metal structure of the seat. The goal is to minimize the risk of serious injuries. The goal of proposed methodology is to predict the performance as a function of displacement of the metal structure by using Finite Element Method (FEM). In this methodology, the minimum number of elements that make up the seat structure is analyzed in order to reduce analysis time, considering only the elements that play and have effect on the performance of the safety belt, thus generating a faster and more efficient analysis. By comparing the results obtained through Finite Element Method with the actual test, it was determined that the FEM method is effective in predicting the weak points of the metal structure that influence the displacement and/or deformation of the seat during the test.

Article

FVMSS 210 Método de elemento finito Asiento trasero Prueba de anclaje Cinturón de seguridad Finite element method Rear seat Anchorage test Seat belt INGENIERÍA Y TECNOLOGÍA CIENCIAS TECNOLÓGICAS OTRAS ESPECIALIDADES TECNOLÓGICAS OTRAS OTRAS

Sustainable urban mobility: An alternative for air pollution in the Guadalajara Metropolitan Area

José Antonio Olivares Mendoza Clemente Hernandez-Rodriguez Luz Alicia Jimenez Portugal (2023)

The objective of this paper is to evaluate whether the low-carbon transport strategy (subway, rapid transit bus system -Macrobús-, trolleybus, and shared bicycles) implemented in the Guadalajara Metropolitan Area (AMG) from 2000 to 2019 improves air quality. Sustainable urban mobility is the movement of people in cities in a way that generates the least impact on the environment. We analyze three actions of government intervention in the same sense. This is the first study for Guadalajara, the third-largest city in Mexico. We use robust Newey-West estimators and endogenously model pollution disruptions using the Bai Perron approach. Our results suggest that this type of public transport reduces SO2, NO2, O3, and CO, though we find an increase in PM10. We also identified that when the service of the first line of the Bus Rapid Transit was consolidated CO, O3 and PM10 decreased. In addition, the improvement in the connectivity of the bus network with the subway means that only NO2 diminished. Finally, the entry into operation of the shared bicycle program reduced PM10, while increasing O3 and in SO2. In short, sustainable urban mobility is an alternative to making the transit of people efficient, while mitigating air pollution in the AMG.

Article

Artículo

Contaminación del aire Transporte urbano Bicicletas compartidas Autobuses de tránsito rápido Metro CIENCIAS SOCIALES CIENCIAS SOCIALES Air pollution Urban transport Bus Rapid Transit

Addressing agricultural labour issues is key to biodiversity-smart farming

Thomas Daum Frédéric Baudron Matin Qaim Ingo Grass (2023)

There is an urgent need for agricultural development strategies that reconcile agricultural production and biodiversity conservation. This is especially true in the Global South where population growth is rapid and much of the world's remaining biodiversity is located. Combining conceptual thoughts with empirical insights from case studies in Indonesia and Ethiopia, we argue that such strategies will have to pay more attention to agricultural labour dynamics. Farmers have a strong motivation to reduce the heavy toil associated with farming by adopting technologies that save labour but can negatively affect biodiversity. Labour constraints can also prevent farmers from adopting technologies that improve biodiversity but increase labour intensity. Without explicitly accounting for labour issues, conservation efforts can hardly be successful. We hence highlight the need for biodiversity-smart agriculture, that is farming practices or systems that reconcile biodiversity with land and labour productivity. Our empirical insights suggest that technological and institutional options to reconcile farmers' socio-economic goals and biodiversity conservation exist but that more needs to be done to implement such options at scale.

Article

Land Sharing Trade-Offs CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION LABOUR SUSTAINABILITY

Monitoreo con drones en gráficas con viento dinámico

Jovanni Manuel López Elisea (2024)

108 páginas. Maestría en Optimización.

Dada una gráfica completa no dirigida, se desea recorrer un subconjunto de sus aristas usando una flotilla de drones. Los drones tienen baterías limitadas que pueden recargarse al regresar a la base y, en principio, el tiempo para recorrer una arista está en función de la distancia entre sus vértices. Sin embargo, ante la presencia de viento el tiempo de recorrer una arista puede depender del sentido en el que se haga. La dificultad del problema aumenta si además la intensidad del viento puede variar de un instante a otro. En esta tesis se aborda el problema anteriormente descrito para el caso particular en el que los vértices son puntos en el plano, el impacto del viento en los tiempos de recorrido de las aristas está relativamente acotado y el subconjunto de las aristas a recorrer inducen un árbol que abarca todos los vértices excepto la base de los drones. Dado que los drones operan simultáneamente y pueden recorrer distintas partes de la gráfica de manera independiente, se desea minimizar el tiempo que emplea el dron con el recorrido más tardado. Esta tesis presenta un modelo matemático para resolver el problema de manera exacta, así como tres heurísticas diferentes para obtener buenas soluciones factibles. La primera de estas heurísticas transforma una solución sin viento y sin batería en una solución con viento y batería. La segunda heurística es un algoritmo glotón sin comunicación entre los drones y la última heurística también es un algoritmo glotón, pero con comunicación entre los drones. Aunque el problema abordado resulta ser lo suficientemente difícil como para que su resolución exacta sea inviable en la práctica, las heurísticas diseñadas son fáciles de implementar y obtuvieron resultados razonables en un tiempo corto de cómputo.

Master thesis

Drone aircraft--Control systems. Drone aircraft--Mathematical models. Mathematical optimization. Heuristic programming. Dynamical systems. Graph theory. Micro vehículos aéreos. Optimización matemática. Programación heurística. Teoría de grafos. TL589.4 CIENCIAS FÍSICO MATEMÁTICAS Y CIENCIAS DE LA TIERRA MATEMÁTICAS INVESTIGACIÓN OPERATIVA DISTRIBUCIÓN Y TRANSPORTE

Géneros y afectos en la espacialidad universitaria: perspectivas para el diseño de campus futuros

Griselda Flesler Carolina Spataro RAFAEL BLANCO (2023)

Este trabajo analiza el impacto en el espacio universitario de las políticas de género implementadas en el ámbito de la Universidad de Buenos Aires (UBA, Argentina) entre los años 2015 y 2020. Se trata de un estudio de caso realizado en el ámbito de la Ciudad Universitaria, campus en el que se emplazan las facultades de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (FCEyN) y de Arquitectura, Diseño y Urbanismo (FADU). El propósito de este artículo es problematizar la relación entre afecto y espacialidad a partir de los resultados de una encuesta que se propuso identificar cuáles son las emociones que suscitan algunos espacios cotidianos para quienes trabajan y estudian en el campus de la UBA, en particular, aquellos intervenidos con políticas de género durante los últimos años.

This paper analyzes the impact on spaciality of gender policies implemented at the University of Buenos Aires (UBA, Argentina) between 2015 and 2020. It is a case study carried out in the campus where the Faculties of Exact and Natural Sciences (FCEyN) and Architecture, Design and Urbanism (FADU) are located. The purpose of this article is to problematize the relationship between affective perception and spatiality based on the results of a survey that aimed to identify the emotions that some daily spaces arouse for those who work and study on the UBA Campus, in particular, those intervened with gender policies in recent years.

Book part

Universidad, espacio, género, giro afectivo. University, space, gender, affective turn. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Gender mainstreaming. Community and college. Incorporación de la perspectiva de género. Universidades. Comunidad y universidad. LC191.98.A74 HUMANIDADES Y CIENCIAS DE LA CONDUCTA PEDAGOGÍA ORGANIZACIÓN Y PLANIFICACIÓN DE LA EDUCACIÓN