Chapter 7. The climate–security nexus Securing resilient livelihoods through early warning systems and adaptive safety nets

Peter Läderach Paresh Shirsath Steven Prager (2023, [Capítulo de libro])

CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA CLIMATE CHANGE CONFLICTS VULNERABILITY EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS

High spatial resolution seasonal crop yield forecasting for heterogeneous maize environments in Oromia, Ethiopia

Kindie Tesfaye Vakhtang Shelia Pierre C. Sibiry Traore Dawit Solomon Gerrit Hoogenboom (2023, [Artículo])

Seasonal climate variability determines crop productivity in Ethiopia, where rainfed smallholder farming systems dominate in the agriculture production. Under such conditions, a functional and granular spatial yield forecasting system could provide risk management options for farmers and agricultural and policy experts, leading to greater economic and social benefits under highly variable environmental conditions. Yet, there are currently only a few forecasting systems to support early decision making for smallholder agriculture in developing countries such as Ethiopia. To address this challenge, a study was conducted to evaluate a seasonal crop yield forecast methodology implemented in the CCAFS Regional Agricultural Forecasting Toolbox (CRAFT). CRAFT is a software platform that can run pre-installed crop models and use the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) to produce probabilistic crop yield forecasts with various lead times. Here we present data inputs, model calibration, evaluation, and yield forecast results, as well as limitations and assumptions made during forecasting maize yield. Simulations were conducted on a 0.083° or ∼ 10 km resolution grid using spatially variable soil, weather, maize hybrids, and crop management data as inputs for the Cropping System Model (CSM) of the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT). CRAFT combines gridded crop simulations and a multivariate statistical model to integrate the seasonal climate forecast for the crop yield forecasting. A statistical model was trained using 29 years (1991–2019) data on the Nino-3.4 Sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) as gridded predictors field and simulated maize yields as the predictand. After model calibration the regional aggregated hindcast simulation from 2015 to 2019 performed well (RMSE = 164 kg/ha). The yield forecasts in both the absolute and relative to the normal yield values were conducted for the 2020 season using different predictor fields and lead times from a grid cell to the national level. Yield forecast uncertainties were presented in terms of cumulative probability distributions. With reliable data and rigorous calibration, the study successfully demonstrated CRAFT's ability and applicability in forecasting maize yield for smallholder farming systems. Future studies should re-evaluate and address the importance of the size of agricultural areas while comparing aggregated simulated yields with yield data collected from a fraction of the target area.

CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA CROP MODELLING DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS FORECASTING MAIZE

Wheat rust early warning systems in Ethiopia: using new technologies to combat crop disease

Gerald Blasch (2020, [Objeto de congreso])

CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA RUSTS MONITORING DISEASE SURVEILLANCE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS

Do provisioning ecosystem services change along gradients of increasing agricultural production?

Ronju Ahammad Stephanie Tomscha Sarah Gergel Frédéric Baudron Jean-Yves Duriaux Chavarría Samson Foli Dominic Rowland Josh Van Vianen Terence Sunderland (2024, [Artículo])

Context: Increasing agricultural production shapes the flow of ecosystem services (ES), including provisioning services that support the livelihoods and nutrition of people in tropical developing countries. Although our broad understanding of the social-ecological consequences of agricultural intensification is growing, how it impacts provisioning ES is still unknown. Objectives: We examined the household use of provisioning ES across a gradient of increasing agricultural production in seven tropical countries (Bangladesh, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Nicaragua and Zambia). We answered two overarching questions: (1) does the use of provisioning ES differ along gradients of agriculture production ranging from zones of subsistence to moderate and to high agriculture production? and (2) are there synergies and/or trade-offs within and among groups of ES within these zones? Methods: Using structured surveys, we asked 1900 households about their assets, livestock, crops, and collection of forest products. These questions allowed us to assess the number of provisioning ES households used, and whether the ES used are functionally substitutable (i.e., used similarly for nutrition, material, and energy). Finally, we explored synergies and trade-offs among household use of provisioning ES. Results: As agricultural production increased, provisioning ES declined both in total number and in different functional groups used. We found more severe decreases in ES for relatively poorer households. Within the functional groups of ES, synergistic relationships were more often found than trade-offs in all zones, including significant synergies among livestock products (dairy, eggs, meat) and fruits. Conclusions: Considering landscape context provides opportunities to enhance synergies among provisioning services for households, supporting resilient food systems and human well-being.

Agricultural Production Zones Agricultural Intensifcation Synergies and Trade-Offs Landscape Multifunctionality Social-Ecological Systems CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA AGRICULTURE INTENSIFICATION ECOSYSTEM SERVICES LANDSCAPE SOCIAL-ECOLOGICAL RESILIENCE ECOSYSTEM SERVICES

Unanswered questions and unquestioned answers: the challenges of crop residue retention and weed control in Conservation Agriculture systems of southern Africa

Christian Thierfelder Blessing Mhlanga Hambulo Ngoma Paswel Marenya Md Abdul Matin Adane Tufa (2024, [Artículo])

Production and utilization of crop residues as mulch and effective weed management are two central elements in the successful implementation of Conservation Agriculture (CA) systems in southern Africa. Yet, the challenges of crop residue availability for mulch or the difficulties in managing weed proliferation in CA systems are bigger than a micro-level focus on weeds and crop residues themselves. The bottlenecks are symptoms of broader systemic complications that cannot be resolved without appreciating the interactions between the current scientific understanding of CA and its application in smallholder systems, private incentives, social norms, institutions, and government policy. In this paper, we elucidate a series of areas that represent some unquestioned answers about chemical weed control and unanswered questions about how to maintain groundcover demanding more research along the natural and social sciences continuum. In some communities, traditional rules that allow free-range grazing of livestock after harvesting present a barrier in surface crop residue management. On the other hand, many of the communities either burn, remove, or incorporate the residues into the soil thus hindering the near-permanent soil cover required in CA systems. The lack of soil cover also means that weed management through soil mulch is unachievable. Herbicides are often a successful stopgap solution to weed control, but they are costly, and most farmers do not use them as recommended, which reduces efficacy. Besides, the use of herbicides can cause environmental hazards and may affect human health. Here, we suggest further assessment of the manipulation of crop competition, the use of vigorously growing cover crops, exploration of allelopathy, and use of microorganisms in managing weeds and reducing seed production to deplete the soil weed seed bank. We also suggest in situ production of plant biomass, use of unpalatable species for mulch generation and change of grazing by-laws towards a holistic management of pastures to reduce the competition for crop residues. However, these depend on the socio-economic status dynamics at farmer and community level.

CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA INTEGRATED CROP-LIVESTOCK SYSTEMS CROP RESIDUES ZERO TILLAGE SOCIAL NORMS SUSTAINABLE INTENSIFICATION WEED CONTROL

How diverse are farming systems on the Eastern Gangetic Plains of South Asia? A multi-metric and multi-country assessment

Brendan Brown Pragya Timsina Emma Karki (2023, [Artículo])

While crop diversification has many benefits and is a stated government objective across the Eastern Gangetic Plains (EGP) of South Asia, the complexity of assessment has led to a rather limited understanding on the progress towards, and status of, smallholder crop diversification. Most studies focus on specific commodities or report as part of a singular index, use outdated secondary data, or implement highly localized studies, leading to broad generalisations and a lack of regional comparison. We collected representative primary data with more than 5000 households in 55 communities in Eastern Nepal, West Bengal (India) and Northwest Bangladesh to explore seasonally based diversification experiences and applied novel metrics to understand the nuanced status of farm diversification. While 66 crops were commercially grown across the region, only five crops and three crop families were widely grown (Poaceae, Malvaceae, and Brassicaceae). Non-cereal diversification across the region was limited (1.5 crops per household), though regional differentiation were evident particularly relating to livestock and off-farm activities, highlighting the importance of cross border studies. In terms of farmer's largest commercial plots, 20% of systems contained only rice, and 57% contained only rice/wheat/maize, with substantial regional diversity present. This raises concerns regarding the extent of commercially oriented high value and non-cereal diversification, alongside opportunities for diversification in the under-diversified pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons. Future promotional efforts may need to focus particularly on legumes to ensure the future sustainability and viability of farming systems.

Agricultural Production Systems Farming Systems Change CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION CROPPING SYSTEMS DIVERSIFICATION FARMING SYSTEMS SUSTAINABLE INTENSIFICATION

Solar Irrigation Pump (SIP) sizing tool: user manual (Beta version)

Santosh Mali Paresh Shirsath (2022, [Libro])

CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA SOLAR POWERED IRRIGATION SYSTEMS PUMPS IRRIGATION WATER MANUALS

Influence of poverty concerns on demand for healthier processed foods: A field experiment in Mexico City

Marrit Van den Berg Jason Donovan (2023, [Artículo])

Living in poverty can present cognitive biases that exacerbate constraints to achieving healthier diets. Better diets could imply food choice upgrades within certain food categories, such as electing processed foods with an improved nutritional profile. This study evaluated the influence of monetary and health concerns on the willingness to pay (WTP) for healthier processed foods in a low-income section of Mexico City. We employed priming techniques from the scarcity literature, which are applied for the first time to healthier food purchasing behaviours in low-income settings. Our predictions are based on a dual system framework, with choices resulting from the interaction of deliberative and affective aspects. The WTP was elicited through a BDM mechanism with 423 participants. Results showed that induced poverty concerns reduced the valuations of one of the study's healthier food varieties by 0.17 standard deviations. The latter effect did not differ by income level. The WTP for a healthier bread product but one with relatively high sugar and fat content was reduced by induced poverty concerns only among certain consumers without bread purchasing restrictions (78% of the sample). Potential mechanisms were assessed through regression analysis and structural equation modelling. The relationship between poverty concerns and WTP was mediated by increased levels of stress. While we could not rule out impact on cognitive load, it was not deemed a mediator in this study. Our findings signal that improvements in economic and psychological well-being among low-income consumers may aid to increase their demand for healthier processed foods.

Healthier Diets Poverty Psychology Dual System Model CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA DIET POVERTY PSYCHOLOGY STRESS WILLINGNESS TO PAY

The input reduction principle of agroecology is wrong when it comes to mineral fertilizer use in sub-Saharan Africa

Gatien Falconnier Marc Corbeels Frédéric Baudron Antoine Couëdel leonard rusinamhodzi bernard vanlauwe Ken Giller (2023, [Artículo])

Can farmers in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) boost crop yields and improve food availability without using more mineral fertilizer? This question has been at the center of lively debates among the civil society, policy-makers, and in academic editorials. Proponents of the “yes” answer have put forward the “input reduction” principle of agroecology, i.e. by relying on agrobiodiversity, recycling and better efficiency, agroecological practices such as the use of legumes and manure can increase crop productivity without the need for more mineral fertilizer. We reviewed decades of scientific literature on nutrient balances in SSA, biological nitrogen fixation of tropical legumes, manure production and use in smallholder farming systems, and the environmental impact of mineral fertilizer. Our analyses show that more mineral fertilizer is needed in SSA for five reasons: (i) the starting point in SSA is that agricultural production is “agroecological” by default, that is, very low mineral fertilizer use, widespread mixed crop-livestock systems and large crop diversity including legumes, but leading to poor soil fertility as a result of widespread soil nutrient mining, (ii) the nitrogen needs of crops cannot be adequately met solely through biological nitrogen fixation by legumes and recycling of animal manure, (iii) other nutrients like phosphorus and potassium need to be replaced continuously, (iv) mineral fertilizers, if used appropriately, cause little harm to the environment, and (v) reducing the use of mineral fertilizers would hamper productivity gains and contribute indirectly to agricultural expansion and to deforestation. Yet, the agroecological principles directly related to soil fertility—recycling, efficiency, diversity—remain key in improving soil health and nutrient-use efficiency, and are critical to sustaining crop productivity in the long run. We argue for a nuanced position that acknowledges the critical need for more mineral fertilizers in SSA, in combination with the use of agroecological practices and adequate policy support.

Manure Crop Yields Smallholder Farming Systems Environmental Hazards CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA BIOLOGICAL NITROGEN FIXATION LEGUMES NUTRIENT BALANCE SOIL FERTILITY AGROECOLOGY YIELD INCREASES LITERATURE REVIEWS

Closing the yield gap of soybean (Glycine max (L.) Merril) in Southern Africa: a case of Malawi, Zambia, and Mozambique

Siyabusa Mkuhlani Isaiah Nyagumbo (2023, [Artículo])

Introduction: Smallholder farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are increasingly producing soybean for food, feed, cash, and soil fertility improvement. Yet, the difference between the smallholder farmers’ yield and either the attainable in research fields or the potential from crop models is wide. Reasons for the yield gap include low to nonapplication of appropriate fertilizers and inoculants, late planting, low plant populations, recycling seeds, etc. Methods: Here, we reviewed the literature on the yield gap and the technologies for narrowing it and modelled yields through the right sowing dates and suitable high-yielding varieties in APSIM. Results and Discussion: Results highlighted that between 2010 and 2020 in SSA, soybean production increased; however, it was through an expansion in the cropped area rather than a yield increase per hectare. Also, the actual smallholder farmers’ yield was 3.8, 2.2, and 2.3 times lower than the attainable yield in Malawi, Zambia, and Mozambique, respectively. Through inoculants, soybean yield increased by 23.8%. Coupling this with either 40 kg ha−1 of P or 60 kg ha−1 of K boosted the yields by 89.1% and 26.0%, respectively. Overall, application of 21–30 kg ha-1 of P to soybean in SSA could increase yields by about 48.2%. Furthermore, sowing at the right time increased soybean yield by 300%. Although these technologies enhance soybean yields, they are not fully embraced by smallholder farmers. Hence, refining and bundling them in a digital advisory tool will enhance the availability of the correct information to smallholder farmers at the right time and improve soybean yields per unit area.

Decision Support Tools Digital Tools Site-Specific Recommendations CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS LEGUMES YIELDS SOYBEANS