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Autor: Khondoker Mottaleb
Threat of wheat blast to South Asia’s food security: An ex-ante analysis
Khondoker Mottaleb Kai Sonder Gideon Kruseman Hans-Joachim Braun (2017)
Impacts of wheat blast disease on food security in South Asia- ex-ante impact study
Dataset
Projecting food demand of Nepal: Implications for policy
Khondoker Mottaleb Dil Bahadur Rahut Gideon Kruseman Olaf Erenstein (2019)
This study projected the consumption demand of a few major food items of Nepal. On average, 62% of the total daily dietary energy of a Nepalese comes solely from cereals. As the economy of Nepal is rapidly emerging, and given that 25% of the total population of Nepal is still poor, this study projects the aggregate consumption demand for rice, wheat, maize and other cereals, pulses, vegetables, and fish and meat in Nepal by 2025 and 2030. Findings indicate that the consumption demand of the sampled commodities would increase with the GDP and population growth of the country. For example, by 2030, the demand for wheat, maize, and rice will increase by 63%, 46%, and 8%, respectively, from the consumption level in 2018/19. This study also demonstrates that the consumption demand for noncereal food items such as pulses, vegetables, meat and fish would also increase by 2030. Based on the findings, this study strongly suggests policymakers to invest both in cereal and noncereal subsectors of agriculture in Nepal to enhance the domestic production capacity. Investment in agricultural capacity enhancement can also reduce extreme poverty in Nepal, as more than 66% of the employed labor force in Nepal is currently engaged in agriculture.
Dataset
Wheat blast: averting wheat blast in India
Khondoker Mottaleb Kai Sonder Gideon Kruseman Olaf Erenstein (2018)
The emergence of wheat-blast disease in Bangladesh in the 2015-16 wheat (Triticum aestivum) crop threatens the food security of South Asia. As wheat is the second most important staple and India has been emerging as a net wheat exporter, a potential spread of the disease from Bangladesh to India could have devastating impacts on India’s overall food security. West Bengal state in eastern India shares a 2,217 km-long border with Bangladesh and has a similar agro-ecology in its nine border districts, enhancing the possibility that disease may enter India via West Bengal. The present study explores the possibility of a ‘wheat holiday’ policy in the nine border districts of West Bengal, India. Under the policy, farmers in these districts would stop wheat cultivation for a few years. The present study attempts to find economically feasible alternative crops to wheat by applying an ex ante assessment framework. Of the ten crops considered, only maize, lentils, gram (chick pea), urad (black gram), khesari (grass pea), rapeseed, mustard and potatoes are found to be feasible alternatives. Such substitution would need support to ease the transition including addressing the challenges related to the management of the alternative crops, ensuring adequate crop combinations and value chain development. Still, as wheat is a major staple, there is some urgency also to support further research on disease epidemiology and forecasting, as well as the development and dissemination of blast-resistant wheat varieties across South Asia
Dataset