Title

Analysis of the simulated global temperature using a simple energy balance stochastic model

Author

LUIS EFRAIN MORELES VAZQUEZ

BENJAMIN MARTINEZ LOPEZ

Access level

Open Access

Alternative identifier

doi: 10.20937/ATM.2016.29.04.01

Publication reference

URL/http://www.revistascca.unam.mx/atm/index.php/atm/article/view/ATM.2016.29.04.01

Summary or description

This work presents a study of the response of the simulated global temperature variability to additive and multiplicative stochastic parameterizations of heat fluxes, along with a description of the long-term variability in terms of simple autoregressive processes. The Earth’s global temperature was simulated using a globally averaged energy balance climate model coupled to a thermodynamic ocean model. It was found that simple autoregressive processes explain the temperature variability in the case of additive parameterizations; whereas in the case of multiplicative parameterizations, the description of the temperature variability would involve higher order autoregressive processes, suggesting the presence of complex feedback mechanisms originated by the multiplicative forcing. Also, it was found that multiplicative parameterizations produced a rich structure that emulates closely observed climate processes. Finally, a new approach to describe the stability in the steady state of a general one-dimensional stochastic system, through its potential function, was proposed. From an analytical expression of the potential function, further insight into the description of a stochastic system was provided.

Publisher

Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México. Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera

Publish date

October, 2016

Publication type

Article

Publication version

Published Version

Format

application/pdf

Source

Atmósfera; Vol 29, No 4 (2016)

ISSN: 0187-6236

Language

English

Audience

Researchers

Students

Source repository

Repositorio Institucional del Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera de la UNAM

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