Title
Analysis of the simulated global temperature using a simple energy balance stochastic model
Author
LUIS EFRAIN MORELES VAZQUEZ
BENJAMIN MARTINEZ LOPEZ
Access level
Open Access
Alternative identifier
doi: 10.20937/ATM.2016.29.04.01
Publication reference
URL/http://www.revistascca.unam.mx/atm/index.php/atm/article/view/ATM.2016.29.04.01
Subjects
CIENCIAS FÍSICO MATEMÁTICAS Y CIENCIAS DE LA TIERRA - (CTI) Temperature variability - ([Atmósfera; Vol 29, No 4 (2016), ISSN: 0187-6236]) - ([Atmósfera; Vol 29, No 4 (2016), ISSN: 0187-6236]) stochastic parameterizations - ([Atmósfera; Vol 29, No 4 (2016), ISSN: 0187-6236]) - ([Atmósfera; Vol 29, No 4 (2016), ISSN: 0187-6236]) autoregressive process - ([Atmósfera; Vol 29, No 4 (2016), ISSN: 0187-6236]) - ([Atmósfera; Vol 29, No 4 (2016), ISSN: 0187-6236]) steady state - ([Atmósfera; Vol 29, No 4 (2016), ISSN: 0187-6236]) - ([Atmósfera; Vol 29, No 4 (2016), ISSN: 0187-6236]) potential function - ([Atmósfera; Vol 29, No 4 (2016), ISSN: 0187-6236]) - ([Atmósfera; Vol 29, No 4 (2016), ISSN: 0187-6236])
Summary or description
This work presents a study of the response of the simulated global temperature variability to additive and multiplicative stochastic parameterizations of heat fluxes, along with a description of the long-term variability in terms of simple autoregressive processes. The Earth’s global temperature was simulated using a globally averaged energy balance climate model coupled to a thermodynamic ocean model. It was found that simple autoregressive processes explain the temperature variability in the case of additive parameterizations; whereas in the case of multiplicative parameterizations, the description of the temperature variability would involve higher order autoregressive processes, suggesting the presence of complex feedback mechanisms originated by the multiplicative forcing. Also, it was found that multiplicative parameterizations produced a rich structure that emulates closely observed climate processes. Finally, a new approach to describe the stability in the steady state of a general one-dimensional stochastic system, through its potential function, was proposed. From an analytical expression of the potential function, further insight into the description of a stochastic system was provided.
Publisher
Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México. Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera
Publish date
October, 2016
Publication type
Article
Publication version
Published Version
Information Resource
Format
application/pdf
Source
Atmósfera; Vol 29, No 4 (2016)
ISSN: 0187-6236
Language
English
Audience
Researchers
Students
Source repository
Repositorio Institucional del Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera de la UNAM
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