Título
Impacts of International Wheat Improvement Research: 1994-2014
Autor
Hans-Joachim Braun
Thomas Payne
Ravi Gopal Singh
Kai Sonder
Michael Baum
Maarten van Ginkel
Olaf Erenstein
Nivel de Acceso
Acceso Abierto
Materias
Resumen o descripción
This study documents for 1994-2014 the global use of improved wheat germplasm and the economic benefits from international collaboration in wheat improvement research funded by GIAR and involving national agricultural research systems,1 CGIAR organizations, and advanced research institutes. Conducted by the CGIAR Research Program on Wheat (WHEAT), this is the fourth in a series of global wheat impact assessments (Byerlee and Moya 1993; Heisey et al. 2002; Lantican et al. 2005) initiated by the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT). It updates data and earlier analyses from the most recent, previous study, covering 1988-2002 (Lantican et al. 2005). DATA AND METHODS. Data were collected through questionnaires sent to public and private wheat breeding programs in 94 countries that produce at least 5,000 tons of wheat per year. Responses were received from 66 countries (a response rate of 70%) representing about 80% of world wheat production and from 44 developing countries that account for 99% of the wheat grown in the developing world. Survey data were complemented with information from other sources, including inter alia online resources, published varietal guides, figures on wheat varietal area insured or grown, scientific journals, technical bulletins, the US Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA-NASS), Annual Wheat Newsletter, and wheat area, production and yield statistics from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). Pedigree analysis using the BROWSE2 application served to determine the CGIAR contribution to wheat improvement research. A simple economic surplus model was used to estimate the benefits attributable to international wheat improvement research. RESULTSAdoption of high-yielding improved varieties of wheat had increased since the previous study. A paired comparison of 32 countries revealed an increase in adoption from 93% in 2002 to 97% in 2014. Globally, CGIAR-related varieties covered about 106 million (64%) of the study countries’ 165.7 million hectares sown in 2014. This study's area coverage represented three-quarters of the world’s wheat area (222 million hectares3) in 2014. The rest of the area not covered is mainly in developed countries such as France, the United Kingdom, other EU-28 member countries, other areas of the Russian Federation (represented in this study by the Omsk region only) and Australia’s wheat areas aside from Western Australia (covered in this study).Output, as measured by the rate of releases of improved wheat varieties, has been particularly high in recent years: 2010-14 accounted for nearly a quarter of the 4,604 improved varieties released by public national research organizations and private seed companies since 1994, which may be due to the introduction of rust-resistant varieties in recent years. Public breeding programs were the main source of varietal releases (63%), followed by the private-sector (37%). In Latin America, especially Argentina and Brazil, private companies had a greater role, accounting for 53% of wheat varietal releases.CGIAR-related varieties accounted for 63% of all releases. In South Asia – home to more than 300 million undernourished people and whose inhabitants consume over 100 million tons of wheat each year – 92% of the varieties released contained CGIAR breeding contributions and half of the spring bread wheat varieties were direct releases of CGIAR breeding lines. In Latin America, 70% of the spring durum (pasta wheat) varietal releases were CGIAR breeding lines used directly. In Sub-Saharan Africa, direct releases of CGIAR lines comprised 63% of the spring durum wheat varieties and in West Asia and North Africa, 52%. CGIAR breeding contributions were present in 71% of released winter/facultative bread wheat in West Asia and North Africa. The CGIAR share of improved wheat area in 2014 was highest in the main target regions of the developing world (South Asia and Africa). The share with contributions from CGIAR centers was quite large in high-income countries. In China, 28% of all wheat area was sown to CGIAR-related germplasm in 2014.THE RETURNS ON INVESTMENTS IN INTERNATIONAL AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH FOR DEVELOPMENT FOR WHEAT The study confirmed that international wheat improvement research continued to generate very high returns. Annually some US $30 million [2010] was being invested by the CGIAR in international wheat improvement research. In recent years funding had come primarily through bilaterally-funded research conducted with partners worldwide by CIMMYT and the International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA) and including since 2012 approximately US $6 million per year for WHEAT. CGIAR organizations develop and freely share global public goods and depend on national partnerships to achieve meaningful farm-level impacts, but national co-investments are not estimated here.The yield gain attributable to wheat improvement research is the main factor in the estimation of annual benefits, and includes both the growth in yield potential and the averted yield decline due to yield maintenance. Two attribution scenarios were used: (1) historic average increase over base yield (observed average yield increase over the base yield for the reference period), and (2) marginal yield increase by longevity (observed annual marginal yield increase at the end of the reference period multiplied by a “persistence” factor representing an expert estimate of the longevity of the marginal yield gain). Annual benefits4 generated from global wheat improvement efforts ranged from US $6.7 billion to $9.4 billion [2010]. These benefits are attributable to global wheat research that includes the contributions of CGIAR, national agricultural research systems, and advanced research partners.Based on the BROWSE-generated CGIAR contribution (0.33), the benefits attributable specifically to wheat improvement research by CGIAR organizations ranged from US $2.2 billion to $3.1 billion [2010] per year – levels that confirm and exceed estimates from earlier studies and largely relect expanded area under improved varieties and a higher reference price for wheat. The benefit-cost ratio for CGIAR wheat improvement efforts ranged from 73:1 to 103:1 and appears dramatically to justify the investments made. Note that these estimates do not encompass benefits from non-yield traits such as improved grain quality or fodder quality, straw strength, or shortened growth cycles, all of which would further boost the returns.Consistent and sustainable future funding is critical to maintain an efficient and effective global wheat germplasm improvement pipeline, able to respond to emerging threats and opportunities and allowing farmers to satisfy the demand for wheat for the 9 billion-plus world population expected by 2050
Fecha de publicación
2016
Tipo de publicación
Libro
Recurso de información
Formato
application/pdf
Idioma
Inglés
Audiencia
Investigadores
Repositorio Orígen
Repositorio Institucional de Publicaciones Multimedia del CIMMYT
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