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Autor: João Vasco Silva
João Vasco Silva Pytrik Reidsma (2024)
Nitrogen (N) management is essential to ensure crop growth and to balance production, economic, and environmental objectives from farm to regional levels. This study aimed to extend the WOFOST crop model with N limited production and use the model to explore options for sustainable N management for winter wheat in the Netherlands. The extensions consisted of the simulation of crop and soil N processes, stress responses to N deficiencies, and the maximum gross CO2 assimilation rate being computed from the leaf N concentration. A new soil N module, abbreviated as SNOMIN (Soil Nitrogen for Organic and Mineral Nitrogen module) was developed. The model was calibrated and evaluated against field data. The model reproduced the measured grain dry matter in all treatments in both the calibration and evaluation data sets with a RMSE of 1.2 Mg ha−1 and the measured aboveground N uptake with a RMSE of 39 kg N ha−1. Subsequently, the model was applied in a scenario analysis exploring different pathways for sustainable N use on farmers' wheat fields in the Netherlands. Farmers' reported yield and N fertilization management practices were obtained for 141 fields in Flevoland between 2015 and 2017, representing the baseline. Actual N input and N output (amount of N in grains at harvest) were estimated for each field from these data. Water and N-limited yields and N outputs were simulated for these fields to estimate the maximum attainable yield and N output under the reported N management. The investigated scenarios included (1) closing efficiency yield gaps, (2) adjusting N input to the minimum level possible without incurring yield losses, and (3) achieving 90% of the simulated water-limited yield. Scenarios 2 and 3 were devised to allow for soil N mining (2a and 3a) and to not allow for soil N mining (2b and 3b). The results of the scenario analysis show that the largest N surplus reductions without soil N mining, relative to the baseline, can be obtained in scenario 1, with an average of 75%. Accepting negative N surpluses (while maintaining yield) would allow maximum N input reductions of 84 kg N ha−1 (39%) on average (scenario 2a). However, the adjustment in N input for these pathways, and the resulting N surplus, varied strongly across fields, with some fields requiring greater N input than used by farmers.
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Crop Growth Models WOFOST CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA CROPS NITROGEN-USE EFFICIENCY WINTER WHEAT SOIL WATER
Estimating lime requirements for tropical soils: Model comparison and development
Fernando Aramburu Merlos João Vasco Silva Frédéric Baudron Robert Hijmans (2023)
Acid tropical soils may become more productive when treated with agricultural lime, but optimal lime rates have yet to be determined in many tropical regions. In these regions, lime rates can be estimated with lime requirement models based on widely available soil data. We reviewed seven of these models and introduced a new model (LiTAS). We evaluated the models’ ability to predict the amount of lime needed to reach a target change in soil chemical properties with data from four soil incubation studies covering 31 soil types. Two foundational models, one targeting acidity saturation and the other targeting base saturation, were more accurate than the five models that were derived from them, while the LiTAS model was the most accurate. The models were used to estimate lime requirements for 303 African soil samples. We found large differences in the estimated lime rates depending on the target soil chemical property of the model. Therefore, an important first step in formulating liming recommendations is to clearly identify the soil property of interest and the target value that needs to be reached. While the LiTAS model can be useful for strategic research, more information on acidity-related problems other than aluminum toxicity is needed to comprehensively assess the benefits of liming.
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Exchangeable Acidity Aluminum Saturation Calcium Carbonate Equivalent CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA CHEMICOPHYSICAL PROPERTIES LIMES TROPICAL ZONES ACID SOILS ALUMINIUM BASE SATURATION CALCIUM CARBONATE
João Vasco Silva Frits K. Van Evert Pytrik Reidsma (2023)
Context: Wheat crop growth models from all over the world have been calibrated on the Groot and Verberne (1991) data set, collected between 1982 and 1984 in the Netherlands, in at least 28 published studies to date including various recent ones. However, the recent use of this data set for calibration of potential yield is questionable as actual Dutch winter wheat yields increased by 3.1 Mg ha-1 over the period 1984 – 2015. A new comprehensive set of winter wheat experiments, suitable for crop model calibration, was conducted in Wageningen during the growing seasons of 2013–2014 and of 2014–2015. Objective: The present study aimed to quantify the change of winter wheat variety traits between 1984 and 2015 and to examine which of the identified traits explained the increase in wheat yield most. Methods: PCSE-LINTUL3 was calibrated on the Groot and Verberne data (1991) set. Next, it was evaluated on the 2013–2015 data set. The model was further recalibrated on the 2013–2015 data set. Parameter values of both calibrations were compared. Sensitivity analysis was used to assess to what extent climate change, elevated CO2, changes in sowing dates, and changes in cultivar traits could explain yield increases. Results: The estimated reference light use efficiency and the temperature sum from anthesis to maturity were higher in 2013–2015 than in 1982–1984. PCSE-LINTUL3, calibrated on the 1982–1984 data set, underestimated the yield potential of 2013–2015. Sensitivity analyses showed that about half of the simulated winter wheat yield increase between 1984 and 2015 in the Netherlands was explained by elevated CO2 and climate change. The remaining part was explained by the increased temperature sum from anthesis to maturity and, to a smaller extent, by changes in the reference light use efficiency. Changes in sowing dates, biomass partitioning fractions, thermal requirements for anthesis, and biomass reallocation did not explain the yield increase. Conclusion: Recalibration of PCSE-LINTUL3 was necessary to reproduce the high wheat yields currently obtained in the Netherlands. About half of the reported winter wheat yield increase was attributed to climate change and elevated CO2. The remaining part of the increase was attributed to changes in the temperature sum from anthesis to maturity and, to a lesser extent, the reference light use efficiency. Significance: This study systematically addressed to what extent changes in various cultivar traits, climate change, and elevated CO2 can explain the winter wheat yield increase observed in the Netherlands between 1984 and 2015.
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Light Use Efficiency Potential Yield CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA CROP MODELLING LIGHT PHENOLOGY MAXIMUM SUSTAINABLE YIELD TRITICUM AESTIVUM WINTER WHEAT
Hambulo Ngoma João Vasco Silva Frédéric Baudron Isaiah Nyagumbo Christian Thierfelder (2024)
Sustainable agricultural practices such as conservation agriculture have been promoted in southern Africa for nearly three decades, but their adoption remains low. It is of policy interest to unpack behavioural drivers of adoption to understand why adoption remains lower than anticipated. This paper assesses the effects of risk aversion and impatience on the extent and intensity of the adoption of conservation agriculture using panel data collected from 646 households in 2021 and 2022 in Zambia. We find that 12% and 18% of the smallholders were impatient and risk averse, respectively. There are two main empirical findings based on panel data Probit and Tobit models. First, on the extensive margin, being impatient is correlated with a decreased likelihood of adopting combined minimum-tillage (MT) and rotation by 2.9 percentage points and being risk averse is associated with a decreased propensity of adopting combined minimum tillage (MT) and mulching by 3.2 percentage points. Being risk averse is correlated with a decreased chance of adopting basins by 2.8 percentage points. Second, on the intensive margin, impatience and risk aversion are significantly correlated with reduced adoption intensity of basins, ripping, minimum tillage (MT), and combined MT and rotation by 0.02–0.22 ha. These findings imply a need to embed risk management (e.g., through crop yield insurance) in the scaling of sustainable agricultural practices to incentivise adoption. This can help to nudge initial adoption and to protect farmers from yield penalties that are common in experimentation stages.
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Risk and Time Preferences CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION RISK SUSTAINABLE INTENSIFICATION SMALLHOLDERS