Esquema de objetivos de inflación, compromiso, comunicación y credibilidad: ¿por qué el Banco de México muestra dificultad para cumplir con su objetivo puntual de inflación del 3%?

César Geovanny Ángeles Sánchez (2021, [Tesis de maestría])

El presente documento realiza tres ejercicios empíricos para los temas de compromiso, comunicación y credibilidad del Banco de México. En última instancia, se busca responder al porqué, durante la implementación del esquema de objetivos de inflación (2003-2020), el Banco de México ha mostrado dificultad para cumplir con su objetivo puntual de inflación del 3%. Ya que, como lo indican los promedios de las series de tiempo, durante este periodo los niveles de la inflación y de las distintas expectativas de inflación se han ubicado por encima de la meta. Si bien los resultados confirman la credibilidad que tiene el Banco de México con el mantener una inflación baja y estable; siguiendo una regla de Taylor, se encuentra evidencia que, durante el periodo 2003-2020, el Banco de México ha sido tolerante con brechas positivas en el nivel de inflación (acentuándose, de manera significativa, durante el 2015-2020). En otras palabras, los resultados del documento sugieren que, durante la implementación del esquema de objetivos de inflación, el Banco de México ha ajustado su tasa de interés en busca de un nivel de inflación que se ubique en el intervalo que va del 3% + 1 punto porcentual pero no en la meta del 3%. Asimismo, resulta interesante que, del 2007 al 2020, cambios en la tasa de interés hayan sido motivados por brechas en el nivel de producción (tal como si el banco central mantuviese un mandato dual). Finalmente, a través de la construcción de un índice de comunicación que emplea los anuncios de política monetaria, se encuentra evidencia que la comunicación del Banco de México influye en las expectativas de inflación implicitas en instrumentos financieros y permite anticipar futuros movimientos en la tasa de interés (“forward guidance”).

Banco de México (1925- ) -- Effect of inflation (Finance) on -- Econometric models. Banks and banking, Central -- Mexico -- Econometric models. CIENCIAS SOCIALES CIENCIAS SOCIALES

Freshwater exchanges and surface salinity in the Colombian basin, Caribbean Sea

Emilio Beier (2017, [Artículo])

Despite the heavy regional rainfall and considerable discharge of many rivers into the Colombian Basin, there have been few detailed studies about the dilution of Caribbean Surface Water and the variability of salinity in the southwestern Caribbean. An analysis of the precipitation, evaporation and runoff in relation to the climate variability demonstrates that although the salt balance in the Colombian Basin overall is in equilibrium, the area south of 12N is an important dilution sub-basin. In the southwest of the basin, in the region of the Panama-Colombia Gyre, Caribbean Sea Water is diluted by precipitation and runoff year round, while in the northeast, off La Guajira, its salinity increases from December to May by upwelling. At the interannual scale, continental runoff is related to El Niño Southern Oscillation, and precipitation and evaporation south of 12°N are related to the Caribbean Low Level Jet. During El Niño years the maximum salinification occurs in the dry season (December-February) while in La Niña years the maximum dilution (or freshening), reaching La Guajira Coastal Zone, occurs in the wet season (September-November). © 2017 Beier et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

sea water, fresh water, Article, Caribbean, dilution, dry season, El Nino, environmental parameters, evaporation, freshwater exchange, geographic distribution, molecular weight, oscillation, precipitation, river basin, salinity, seasonal variation, s CIENCIAS FÍSICO MATEMÁTICAS Y CIENCIAS DE LA TIERRA CIENCIAS DE LA TIERRA Y DEL ESPACIO OCEANOGRAFÍA OCEANOGRAFÍA

Vibrissa growth rate in California sea lions based on environmental and isotopic oscillations

MARTHA PATRICIA ROSAS HERNANDEZ (2018, [Artículo])

Pinniped vibrissae provide information on changes in diet at seasonal and annual scales; however, species-specific growth patterns must first be determined in order to interpret these data. In this study, a simple linear model was used to estimate the growth rate of vibrissae from adult female California sea lions (Zalophus californianus) from San Esteban Island in the Gulf of California, Mexico. The δ15N and δ13C values do not display a marked oscillatory pattern that would permit direct determination of the time period contained in each vibrissa; thus, time (age) was calculated in two ways: 1) based on the correlation between the observed number of peaks (Fourier series) in the δ15N profile and the length of each vibrissa, and 2) through direct comparison with the observed number of peaks in the δ15N profile. Cross-correlation confirmed that the two peaks in the δ15N profile reflected the two peaks in the chlorophyll-a concentration recorded annually around the island. The mean growth rate obtained from the correlation was 0.08 ± 0.01 mm d-1, while that calculated based on the observed number of peaks was 0.10 ± 0.05 mm d-1. Both are consistent with the rates reported for adult females of other otariid species (0.07 to 0.11 mm d-1). Vibrissa growth rates vary by individual, age, sex, and species; moreover, small differences in the growth rate can result in significant differences over the time periods represented by the isotopic signal. Thus, it is important to assess this parameter on a species-by-species basis. © 2018 Rosas-Hernández et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

carbon, nitrogen, animal, California, chemistry, diet, female, island (geological), Mexico, Otariidae, physiology, Animals, California, Carbon Isotopes, Diet, Female, Islands, Mexico, Nitrogen Isotopes, Sea Lions BIOLOGÍA Y QUÍMICA CIENCIAS DE LA VIDA INMUNOLOGÍA INMUNOLOGÍA

Informalidad laboral municipal en México: análisis de sus causas desde un enfoque espacial

Edison Smith Fonseca Correcha (2020, [Tesis de maestría])

Para el año 2019, más de 30 millones de trabajadores mexicanos estuvieron ejerciendo sus labores en condiciones informales, es decir, excluidos de la seguridad social. Para mitigar este problema público, las políticas públicas en diferentes niveles de gobierno han estado enfocadas principalmente en atacar dos de las posibles causas del problema: los incentivos económicos y la formación de la fuerza laboral. Con el fin de hacer una contribución sobre la relevancia de otras causas en la informalidad laboral, esta investigación presenta evidencia sobre el efecto que tienen los factores espaciales, sociodemográficos, de incentivos económicos y de estructura empresarial sobre la informalidad laboral municipal. Con base en los hallazgos, las recomendaciones de política pública se enfocan en aprovechar algunas estrategias de desarrollo económico regional para generar la conformación de aglomeraciones municipales de empleo formal.

Informal sector (Economics) -- Effect of space on -- Mexico -- Econometric models. Informal sector (Economics) -- Effect of demography on -- Mexico -- Econometric models. Informal sector (Economics) -- Effect of economic aspects on -- Mexico -- Econometric models. CIENCIAS SOCIALES CIENCIAS SOCIALES

Impacto de COVID-19 sobre el consumo eléctrico de las PYMES de la Zona Metropolitana de Aguascalientes

Alonso Darío Pizarro Lagunas (2021, [Tesis de maestría])

La irrupción de COVID-19 en el escenario mundial no sólo se convirtió en una crisis de salud pública sino una crisis económica que tuvo efectos heterogéneos en muchos países en el mundo. En particular, muchas economías experimentaron una fuerte contracción en su producto interno bruto debido en gran parte a las medidas de distanciamiento social y restricción de actividades no esenciales que los países adoptaron para proteger la salud de sus habitantes. Esto afectó al sector eléctrico, ya que muchas industrias disminuyeron su consumo energético. En México, las pequeñas y medianas empresas representan una parte importante del consumo eléctrico de la industria. En este sentido, tomando una muestra representativa de pequeños y medianos establecimientos de la Zona Metropolitana de Aguascalientes estudiamos el comportamiento del consumo eléctrico de estas empresas notando que hubo caídas significativas del consumo eléctrico cuando irrumpió la pandemia en marzo de 2020 en la ZMA. Además, notamos que la caída en consumo eléctrico fue más pronunciada para establecimientos en el sector de servicios que establecimientos en el sector de comercios durante la pandemia. Además, se concluye que las disminuciones en la jornada laboral jugaron un papel importante en esta contracción, mientras que las medidas como digitalización y reducción de empleados no estuvieron relacionadas con la variación de consumo eléctrico en estos pequeños y medianos establecimientos.

Small business -- Energy consumption -- Effect of COVID-19 Pandemic, 2020- on -- Aguascalientes (Mexico) -- Econometric models. COVID-19 Pandemic, 2020- -- Aguascalientes (Mexico) -- Economic aspects. CIENCIAS SOCIALES CIENCIAS SOCIALES

Determinantes del uso de efectivo en México: análisis a través de la ENIF 2018

Juan Pablo Gómez Ayala (2021, [Tesis de maestría])

En este trabajo se analiza el impacto que tienen la economía formal como la educación y disciplina financiera en el uso de efectivo como medio de pago en México. Se estima que como mínimo, una persona que mejore su educación financiera (acerté una pregunta adicional) reducirá en 1.5% su probabilidad de comprar algún bien con efectivo; en cambio si mejora su disciplina financiera (practicar hábitos saludables más frecuentemente), aumentará la probabilidad de que pague servicios con efectivo en 2%.

Cash and carry transactions -- Payment -- Effect of financial literacy on -- Mexico -- 2018 -- Econometric models. Cash and carry transactions -- Payment -- Effect of informal sector (Economics) on -- Mexico -- 2018 -- Econometric models. CIENCIAS SOCIALES CIENCIAS SOCIALES

Escenarios futuros de eventos extremos de precipitación y temperatura en México

Future changes of precipitation and temperature extremes in Mexico

Ernesto Ramos Esteban (2024, [Tesis de maestría])

Diferentes estudios a escala mundial indican un incremento en frecuencia de eventos climáticos extremos debido al calentamiento global y sugieren que podrían intensificarse en el futuro. El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar los posibles cambios de 12 índices climáticos extremos (ICE) de precipitación y temperatura en 15 regiones de México, el sur de los Estados Unidos y Centroamérica para un período histórico (1981-2010), un futuro cercano (2021-2040), un futuro intermedio (2041-2060) y un futuro lejano (2080-2099). Se utilizó el reanálisis ERA5 como referencia en la evaluación histórica de los modelos climáticos globales (MCG) y para las proyecciones se analizaron los ICE de diez MCG del Proyecto de Intercomparación de Modelos Climáticos, fase 6 (CMIP6), de acuerdo con dos escenarios de Vías Socioeconómicas Compartidas (SSPs), uno de bajas emisiones (SSP2-4.5) y otro de altas emisiones (SSP3-7.0). Los MCG reproducen muy bien los índices extremos de temperatura histórica y los días consecutivos secos, pero subestiman la lluvia promedio y la lluvia extrema en las zonas más lluviosas desde el centro de México hasta Centroamérica. Históricamente, se observaron tendencias positivas de las temperaturas extremas (TXx y TNn) en todas las regiones, pero sólo en algunas regiones fueron significativas, mientras que los índices de lluvia extrema (R95p, R10mm y R20mm) presentaron tendencias negativas, pero pequeñas. Las proyecciones indican que las temperaturas extremas podrían seguir incrementándose en el futuro, desde 2° C hasta 5° C a mitad y final de siglo, respectivamente. La contribución de la precipitación extrema arriba del percentil 95 (R95p) se podría incrementar entre un 10 % y 30 %, especialmente en la región subtropical, mientras que la precipitación podría disminuir en las regiones tropicales. Este estudio es el primero que analiza los cambios futuros de índices extremos del CMIP6 a escala regional (en 15 regiones) de México, el sur de Estados Unidos y Centroamérica.

Global-scale studies indicate an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events due to global warming and suggest that they could further intensify in the future. This study aims to assess potential changes in 12 extreme climate indices (ECI) related to precipitation and temperature in 15 regions in Mexico, the southern United States, and Central America for different periods: a historical period (1981-2010), a near future (2021-2040), an intermediate future (2041-2060), and a far future (2080-2099). The ERA5 reanalysis was used as a reference for the historical evaluation of global climate models (GCMs), and ECI from ten GCMs of phase 6 (CMIP6) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project were employed for the projections and examined under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios, one characterized by low emissions (SSP2-4.5) and another representing high greenhouse gas emissions (SSP3-7.0). The GCMs reproduce historical extreme temperature indices and consecutive dry days very well. However, they underestimate average and extreme rainfall from central Mexico to Central America in the wetter areas. Historically, positive trends in extreme temperatures (TXx and TNn) were observed across all regions. However, statistical significance was only present in certain regions, while extreme rainfall indices (R95p, R10mm, and R20mm) exhibited small negative trends. The projections suggest that extreme temperatures could continue to increase in the future, from 2°C to 5°C by the mid and late century, respectively. The contribution of extreme precipitation above the 95th percentile (R95p) could increase by 10% to 30%, particularly in the subtropical regions, while precipitation might decrease in tropical regions. This study is the first to analyze future changes in extreme indices from CMIP6 at a regional scale (across 15 regions) in Mexico, the southern United States, and Central America.

Centroamérica, CMIP6, escenarios SSP, extremos climáticos, intercomparación de modelos climáticos, México Central America, climate extremes, CMIP6, intercomparison of climate models, Mexico, SSP scenarios CIENCIAS FÍSICO MATEMÁTICAS Y CIENCIAS DE LA TIERRA CIENCIAS DE LA TIERRA Y DEL ESPACIO OCEANOGRAFÍA OCEANOGRAFÍA FÍSICA (VE R 5603 .04) OCEANOGRAFÍA FÍSICA (VE R 5603 .04)

Do marine reserves increase prey for California sea lions and Pacific harbor seals?

ALEJANDRO ARIAS DEL RAZO (2019, [Artículo])

Community marine reserves are geographical areas closed to fishing activities, implemented and enforced by the same fishermen that fish around them. Their main objective is to recover commercial stocks of fish and invertebrates. While marine reserves have proven successful in many parts of the world, their success near important marine predator colonies, such as the California sea lion (Zalophus californianus) and the Pacific harbor seal (Phoca vitulina richardii), is yet to be analyzed. In response to the concerns expressed by local fishermen about the impact of the presence of pinnipeds on their communities’ marine reserves, we conducted underwater surveys around four islands in the Pacific west of the Baja California Peninsula: two without reserves (Todos Santos and San Roque); one with a recently established reserve (San Jeronimo); and, a fourth with reserves established eight years ago (Natividad). All these islands are subject to similar rates of exploitation by fishing cooperatives with exclusive rights. We estimated fish biomass and biodiversity in the seas around the islands, applying filters for potential California sea lion and harbor seal prey using known species from the literature. Generalized linear mixed models revealed that the age of the reserve has a significant positive effect on fish biomass, while the site (inside or outside of the reserve) did not, with a similar result found for the biomass of the prey of the California sea lion. Fish biodiversity was also higher around Natividad Island, while invertebrate biodiversity was higher around San Roque. These findings indicate that marine reserves increase overall fish diversity and biomass, despite the presence of top predators, even increasing the numbers of their potential prey. Community marine reserves may help to improve the resilience of marine mammals to climate-driven phenomena and maintain a healthy marine ecosystem for the benefit of both pinnipeds and fishermen. © 2019 Arias-Del-Razo et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

Article, biodiversity, biomass, climate change, ecosystem resilience, environmental exploitation, fish stock, fishing, marine environment, marine invertebrate, nonhuman, Phoca vitulina, Pinnipedia, prey searching, Zalophus californianus, animal, biom BIOLOGÍA Y QUÍMICA CIENCIAS DE LA VIDA BIOLOGÍA ANIMAL (ZOOLOGÍA) BIOLOGÍA ANIMAL (ZOOLOGÍA)

Climate change and the northern elephant seal (Mirounga angustirostris) population in Baja California, Mexico

M. Concepción García-Aguilar (2018, [Artículo])

The Earth0s climate is warming, especially in the mid- and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. The northern elephant seal (Mirounga angustirostris) breeds and haul-outs on islands and the mainland of Baja California, Mexico, and California, U.S.A. At the beginning of the 21st century, numbers of elephant seals in California are increasing, but the status of Baja California populations is unknown, and some data suggest they may be decreasing. We hypothesize that the elephant seal population of Baja California is experiencing a decline because the animals are not migrating as far south due to warming sea and air temperatures. Here we assessed population trends of the Baja California population, and climate change in the region. The numbers of northern elephant seals in Baja California colonies have been decreasing since the 1990s, and both the surface waters off Baja California and the local air temperatures have warmed during the last three decades. We propose that declining population sizes may be attributable to decreased migration towards the southern portions of the range in response to the observed temperature increases. Further research is needed to confirm our hypothesis; however, if true, it would imply that elephant seal colonies of Baja California and California are not demographically isolated which would pose challenges to environmental and management policies between Mexico and the United States. © 2018 García-Aguilar et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

air temperature, article, Baja California, climate change, human, Mirounga angustirostris, nonhuman, population size, warming, animal, ecosystem, environmental protection, Mexico, Phocidae, population density, population migration, temperature, Anima CIENCIAS FÍSICO MATEMÁTICAS Y CIENCIAS DE LA TIERRA CIENCIAS DE LA TIERRA Y DEL ESPACIO OCEANOGRAFÍA OCEANOGRAFÍA

Movements of scalloped hammerhead sharks (Sphyrna lewini) at Cocos Island, Costa Rica and between oceanic islands in the Eastern Tropical Pacific

Elena Nalesso (2019, [Artículo])

Many species of sharks form aggregations around oceanic islands, yet their levels of residency and their site specificity around these islands may vary. In some cases, the waters around oceanic islands have been designated as marine protected areas, yet the conservation value for threatened shark species will depend greatly on how much time they spend within these protected waters. Eighty-four scalloped hammerhead sharks (Sphyrna lewini Griffith & Smith), were tagged with acoustic transmitters at Cocos Island between 2005–2013. The average residence index, expressed as a proportion of days present in our receiver array at the island over the entire monitoring period, was 0.52±0.31, implying that overall the sharks are strongly associated with the island. Residency was significantly greater at Alcyone, a shallow seamount located 3.6 km offshore from the main island, than at the other sites. Timing of presence at the receiver locations was mostly during daytime hours. Although only a single individual from Cocos was detected on a region-wide array, nine hammerheads tagged at Galapagos and Malpelo travelled to Cocos. The hammerheads tagged at Cocos were more resident than those visiting from elsewhere, suggesting that the Galapagos and Malpelo populations may use Cocos as a navigational waypoint or stopover during seasonal migrations to the coastal Central and South America. Our study demonstrates the importance of oceanic islands for this species, and shows that they may form a network of hotspots in the Eastern Tropical Pacific. © 2019 Nalesso et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

article, Cocos Island, human, monitoring, nonhuman, resident, shark, South America, animal, Costa Rica, environmental protection, island (geological), movement (physiology), physiology, season, shark, Animals, Conservation of Natural Resources, Costa CIENCIAS FÍSICO MATEMÁTICAS Y CIENCIAS DE LA TIERRA CIENCIAS DE LA TIERRA Y DEL ESPACIO OCEANOGRAFÍA OCEANOGRAFÍA