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Autor: Gideon Kruseman
Gideon Kruseman (2022)
Artículo
Reusability Java Script Object Notation CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA DATA MANAGEMENT INTEROPERABILITY METADATA SOCIOECONOMIC ASPECTS
Khondoker Mottaleb Gideon Kruseman Sieglinde Snapp (2022)
Violent conflict is a major cause of acute food crises. In 2021, at least 155 million people in 10 countries were severely food insecure and eight of those countries were experiencing armed conflict. On February 24, 2022, an armed conflict between Russian Federation (Russia) and Ukraine escalated. As Russia and Ukraine are major wheat exporters, this will aggravate the already precarious food security situation in many developing countries by disrupting wheat production and export and by accelerating price hikes in import-dependent developing countries. This study examines the potential impacts of this ongoing armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine on wheat price, consumption, and calorie intake from wheat. In doing so, it applies the conditional mixed process estimation procedure using information collected from 163 countries and territories for the years 2016–2019 from online database of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). The study shows that, on average, a 1% decrease in the global wheat trade could increase the producers' price of wheat by 1.1%, and a 1% increase in the producers' price could reduce the yearly per capita wheat consumption by 0.59%, daily calorie intake by 0.54% and protein intake by 0.64% in the sampled countries. Based on this, the study demonstrates that a 50% reduction in wheat exports by Russia and Ukraine could increase the producers’ price of wheat by 15%, which would induce a reduction in wheat consumption and dietary energy intake by at least 8%. Since wheat export has reduced from both Russia and Ukraine, to avoid a food crisis in developing countries, policies are suggested, including near term improvement of domestic wheat production by promoting improved agronomic practices to close yield gaps to meet a substantial portion of wheat self-sufficiency goals. In the long run, countries in Africa, East Asia and South America can explore expanding wheat into new land area. International donor agencies can play a key role in supporting the ongoing wheat research and development activities.
Artículo
Export-Import CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA ARMED CONFLICTS CALORIES CONSUMPTION ELASTICITY FOOD SECURITY PRICES PRODUCTION WHEAT
Threat of wheat blast to South Asia’s food security: An ex-ante analysis
Khondoker Mottaleb Kai Sonder Gideon Kruseman Hans-Joachim Braun (2017)
Impacts of wheat blast disease on food security in South Asia- ex-ante impact study
Dataset
Threat of wheat blast to South Asia’s food security: An ex-ante analysis
Khondoker Mottaleb Kai Sonder Gideon Kruseman Hans-Joachim Braun (2017)
Impacts of wheat blast disease on food security in South Asia- ex-ante impact study
Dataset
Projecting food demand of Nepal: Implications for policy
Khondoker Mottaleb Dil Bahadur Rahut Gideon Kruseman Olaf Erenstein (2019)
This study projected the consumption demand of a few major food items of Nepal. On average, 62% of the total daily dietary energy of a Nepalese comes solely from cereals. As the economy of Nepal is rapidly emerging, and given that 25% of the total population of Nepal is still poor, this study projects the aggregate consumption demand for rice, wheat, maize and other cereals, pulses, vegetables, and fish and meat in Nepal by 2025 and 2030. Findings indicate that the consumption demand of the sampled commodities would increase with the GDP and population growth of the country. For example, by 2030, the demand for wheat, maize, and rice will increase by 63%, 46%, and 8%, respectively, from the consumption level in 2018/19. This study also demonstrates that the consumption demand for noncereal food items such as pulses, vegetables, meat and fish would also increase by 2030. Based on the findings, this study strongly suggests policymakers to invest both in cereal and noncereal subsectors of agriculture in Nepal to enhance the domestic production capacity. Investment in agricultural capacity enhancement can also reduce extreme poverty in Nepal, as more than 66% of the employed labor force in Nepal is currently engaged in agriculture.
Dataset
Wheat blast: averting wheat blast in India
Khondoker Mottaleb Kai Sonder Gideon Kruseman Olaf Erenstein (2018)
The emergence of wheat-blast disease in Bangladesh in the 2015-16 wheat (Triticum aestivum) crop threatens the food security of South Asia. As wheat is the second most important staple and India has been emerging as a net wheat exporter, a potential spread of the disease from Bangladesh to India could have devastating impacts on India’s overall food security. West Bengal state in eastern India shares a 2,217 km-long border with Bangladesh and has a similar agro-ecology in its nine border districts, enhancing the possibility that disease may enter India via West Bengal. The present study explores the possibility of a ‘wheat holiday’ policy in the nine border districts of West Bengal, India. Under the policy, farmers in these districts would stop wheat cultivation for a few years. The present study attempts to find economically feasible alternative crops to wheat by applying an ex ante assessment framework. Of the ten crops considered, only maize, lentils, gram (chick pea), urad (black gram), khesari (grass pea), rapeseed, mustard and potatoes are found to be feasible alternatives. Such substitution would need support to ease the transition including addressing the challenges related to the management of the alternative crops, ensuring adequate crop combinations and value chain development. Still, as wheat is a major staple, there is some urgency also to support further research on disease epidemiology and forecasting, as well as the development and dissemination of blast-resistant wheat varieties across South Asia
Dataset