High spatial resolution seasonal crop yield forecasting for heterogeneous maize environments in Oromia, Ethiopia

Kindie Tesfaye Vakhtang Shelia Pierre C. Sibiry Traore Dawit Solomon Gerrit Hoogenboom (2023, [Artículo])

Seasonal climate variability determines crop productivity in Ethiopia, where rainfed smallholder farming systems dominate in the agriculture production. Under such conditions, a functional and granular spatial yield forecasting system could provide risk management options for farmers and agricultural and policy experts, leading to greater economic and social benefits under highly variable environmental conditions. Yet, there are currently only a few forecasting systems to support early decision making for smallholder agriculture in developing countries such as Ethiopia. To address this challenge, a study was conducted to evaluate a seasonal crop yield forecast methodology implemented in the CCAFS Regional Agricultural Forecasting Toolbox (CRAFT). CRAFT is a software platform that can run pre-installed crop models and use the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) to produce probabilistic crop yield forecasts with various lead times. Here we present data inputs, model calibration, evaluation, and yield forecast results, as well as limitations and assumptions made during forecasting maize yield. Simulations were conducted on a 0.083° or ∼ 10 km resolution grid using spatially variable soil, weather, maize hybrids, and crop management data as inputs for the Cropping System Model (CSM) of the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT). CRAFT combines gridded crop simulations and a multivariate statistical model to integrate the seasonal climate forecast for the crop yield forecasting. A statistical model was trained using 29 years (1991–2019) data on the Nino-3.4 Sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) as gridded predictors field and simulated maize yields as the predictand. After model calibration the regional aggregated hindcast simulation from 2015 to 2019 performed well (RMSE = 164 kg/ha). The yield forecasts in both the absolute and relative to the normal yield values were conducted for the 2020 season using different predictor fields and lead times from a grid cell to the national level. Yield forecast uncertainties were presented in terms of cumulative probability distributions. With reliable data and rigorous calibration, the study successfully demonstrated CRAFT's ability and applicability in forecasting maize yield for smallholder farming systems. Future studies should re-evaluate and address the importance of the size of agricultural areas while comparing aggregated simulated yields with yield data collected from a fraction of the target area.

CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA CROP MODELLING DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS FORECASTING MAIZE

MLN disease diagnostics, MLN disease-free seed production and MLN disease management

Suresh L.M. (2023, [Objeto de congreso])

CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA YIELD LOSSES DISEASES MAIZE PHENOTYPING GERMPLASM SYMPTOMS ECONOMIC ASPECTS

Diseases of maize and phenotyping

Suresh L.M. (2023, [Objeto de congreso])

CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA DISEASE RESISTANCE MAIZE PHENOTYPING GERMPLASM MARKER-ASSISTED SELECTION

Spatiotemporal analysis of rainfall and temperature variability and trends for climate resilient maize farming system in major agroecology zones of northwest Ethiopia

Kindie Tesfaye Dereje Ademe Enyew Adgo (2023, [Artículo])

Spatiotemporal studies of the annual and seasonal climate variability and trend on an agroecological spatial scale for establishing a climate-resilient maize farming system have not yet been conducted in Ethiopia. The study was carried out in three major agroecological zones in northwest Ethiopia using climate data from 1987 to 2018. The coefficient of variation (CV), precipitation concertation index (PCI), and rainfall anomaly index (RAI) were used to analyze the variability of rainfall. The Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator were also applied to estimate trends and slopes of changes in rainfall and temperature. High-significance warming trends in the maximum and minimum temperatures were shown in the highland and lowland agroecology zones, respectively. Rainfall has also demonstrated a maximum declining trend throughout the keremt season in the highland agroecology zone. However, rainfall distribution has become more unpredictable in the Bega and Belg seasons. Climate-resilient maize agronomic activities have been determined by analyzing the onset and cessation dates and the length of the growth period (LGP). The rainy season begins between May 8 and June 3 and finishes between October 26 and November 16. The length of the growth period (LGP) during the rainy season ranges from 94 to 229 days.

Climate Trends Spatiotemporal Analysis Agroecology Zone CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA AGROECOLOGY CLIMATE CLIMATE VARIABILITY MAIZE

Combination of linkage and association mapping with genomic prediction to infer QTL regions associated with gray leaf spot and northern corn leaf blight resistance in tropical maize

David Berger Yoseph Beyene Collins Juma Suresh L.M. Manje Gowda (2023, [Artículo])

Gray Leaf Spot Northern Corn Leaf Blight CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA MAIZE LEAF SPOTS QUANTITATIVE TRAIT LOCI ASSOCIATION MAPPING GENOME-WIDE ASSOCIATION STUDIES

Use of remote sensing for linkage mapping and genomic prediction for common rust resistance in maize

Alexander Loladze Francelino Rodrigues Cesar Petroli Felix San Vicente Garcia Bruno Gerard Osval Antonio Montesinos-Lopez Jose Crossa Johannes Martini (2024, [Artículo])

Common Rust Rp1 Locus CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA RUSTS REMOTE SENSING VEGETATION INDEX MAIZE CHROMOSOME MAPPING

Targeted nitrogen management to increase cereal production while reducing nitrogen consumption in India

Tek Sapkota Sieglinde Snapp (2022, [Objeto de congreso])

CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA CEREAL PRODUCTS PRODUCTION SYSTEMS CEREALS NITROGEN RICE WHEAT MAIZE

Population genetic structure of the maize weevil, Sitophilus zeamais, in southern Mexico

Michael Jones Martha Willcox (2023, [Artículo])

Maize Weevil Genetic Structure CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA AGRICULTURAL WORKERS FILTRATION GENE FLOW MAIZE SINGLE NUCLEOTIDE POLYMORPHISM SITOPHILUS ZEAMAIS CURCULIONIDAE

Dead level contour technical design parameters required for sustainable crop production in semi-arid areas of Zimbabwe

Menas Wuta Isaiah Nyagumbo (2021, [Artículo])

Maize Yield Optimum Interval Dead Level Contours CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA TECHNOLOGY DRY SPELLS MAIZE YIELDS RAINWATER HARVESTING

Optimizing nitrogen fertilizer and planting density levels for maize production under current climate conditions in Northwest Ethiopian midlands

Kindie Tesfaye Dereje Ademe Enyew Adgo (2023, [Artículo])

This study determined the most effective plating density (PD) and nitrogen (N) fertilizer rate for well-adapted BH540 medium-maturing maize cultivars for current climate condition in north west Ethiopia midlands. The Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT)-Crop Environment Resource Synthesis (CERES)-Maize model has been utilized to determine the appropriate PD and N-fertilizer rate. An experimental study of PD (55,555, 62500, and 76,900 plants ha−1) and N (138, 207, and 276 kg N ha−1) levels was conducted for 3 years at 4 distinct sites. The DSSAT-CERES-Maize model was calibrated using climate data from 1987 to 2018, physicochemical soil profiling data (wilting point, field capacity, saturation, saturated hydraulic conductivity, root growth factor, bulk density, soil texture, organic carbon, total nitrogen; and soil pH), and agronomic management data from the experiment. After calibration, the DSSAT-CERES-Maize model was able to simulate the phenology and growth parameters of maize in the evaluation data set. The results from analysis of variance revealed that the maximum observed and simulated grain yield, biomass, and leaf area index were recorded from 276 kg N ha−1 and 76,900 plants ha−1 for the BH540 maize variety under the current climate condition. The application of 76,900 plants ha−1 combined with 276 kg N ha−1 significantly increased observed and simulated yield by 25% and 15%, respectively, compared with recommendation. Finally, future research on different N and PD levels in various agroecological zones with different varieties of mature maize types could be conducted for the current and future climate periods.

Maize Model Planting Density CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA MAIZE MODELS SPACING NITROGEN FERTILIZERS YIELDS