El impacto de la violencia en los flujos migratorios procedentes de Guatemala

Thania Berenice Hernández Alarcón (2021, [Tesis de maestría])

Con este trabajo buscamos entender cómo la violencia en el lugar de origen de una persona puede motivar su decisión de migrar. La aproximación teórica al fenómeno de la migración sugiere que la provisión relativa de bienes públicos es un factor en el análisis costo beneficio mediante el cual el agente evalúa la rentabilidad de la migración. Desde esta perspectiva, la búsqueda de beneficios pecuniarios, como un mayor salario, es compatible con la búsqueda de beneficios no pecuniarios, como mayores niveles de seguridad. Nos interesamos por evaluar lo anterior para el caso de Guatemala. Sirviéndonos de la variación trimestral de trecientos veintinueve municipios en una ventana de once años buscamos evidencia de que la tasa de migración de personas de origen guatemalteco que buscan empleo en México o Estados Unidos se correlaciona de manera positiva con la tasa de homicidios en sus municipios de origen. Nuestros resultados sugieren que esto se cumple y que aumentos en los niveles de violencia homicida pueden propiciar desplazamientos laborales.

Guatemala -- Emigration and immigration -- Effect of violence on -- Econometric models United States -- Emigration and immigration -- Econometric models. CIENCIAS SOCIALES CIENCIAS SOCIALES

Contrasting spatial patterns in active-fire and fire-suppressed mediterranean climate old-growth mixed conifer forests

Danny L. Fry  (2014, [Artículo])

In Mediterranean environments in western North America, historic fire regimes in frequent-fire conifer forests are highly variable both temporally and spatially. This complexity influenced forest structure and spatial patterns, but some of this diversity has been lost due to anthropogenic disruption of ecosystem processes, including fire. Information from reference forest sites can help management efforts to restore forests conditions that may be more resilient to future changes in disturbance regimes and climate. In this study, we characterize tree spatial patterns using four-ha stem maps from four old-growth, Jeffrey pine-mixed conifer forests, two with active-fire regimes in northwestern Mexico and two that experienced fire exclusion in the southern Sierra Nevada. Most of the trees were in patches, averaging six to 11 trees per patch at 0.007 to 0.014 ha-1, and occupied 27-46% of the study areas. Average canopy gap sizes (0.04 ha) covering 11-20% of the area were not significantly different among sites. The putative main effects of fire exclusion were higher densities of single trees in smaller size classes, larger proportion of trees (≥56%) in large patches (≥10 trees), and decreases in spatial complexity. While a homogenization of forest structure has been a typical result from fire exclusion, some similarities in patch, single tree, and gap attributes were maintained at these sites. These within-stand descriptions provide spatially relevant benchmarks from which to manage for structural heterogeneity in frequent-fire forest types.

article, climate, controlled study, ecosystem fire history, forest structure, geographic distribution, geographic mapping, land use, mathematical computing, mathematical model, Mexico, spatial analysis, taiga, United States, comparative study, conife CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA

Determinantes del uso de efectivo en México: análisis a través de la ENIF 2018

Juan Pablo Gómez Ayala (2021, [Tesis de maestría])

En este trabajo se analiza el impacto que tienen la economía formal como la educación y disciplina financiera en el uso de efectivo como medio de pago en México. Se estima que como mínimo, una persona que mejore su educación financiera (acerté una pregunta adicional) reducirá en 1.5% su probabilidad de comprar algún bien con efectivo; en cambio si mejora su disciplina financiera (practicar hábitos saludables más frecuentemente), aumentará la probabilidad de que pague servicios con efectivo en 2%.

Cash and carry transactions -- Payment -- Effect of financial literacy on -- Mexico -- 2018 -- Econometric models. Cash and carry transactions -- Payment -- Effect of informal sector (Economics) on -- Mexico -- 2018 -- Econometric models. CIENCIAS SOCIALES CIENCIAS SOCIALES

Optimizing nitrogen fertilizer and planting density levels for maize production under current climate conditions in Northwest Ethiopian midlands

Kindie Tesfaye Dereje Ademe Enyew Adgo (2023, [Artículo])

This study determined the most effective plating density (PD) and nitrogen (N) fertilizer rate for well-adapted BH540 medium-maturing maize cultivars for current climate condition in north west Ethiopia midlands. The Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT)-Crop Environment Resource Synthesis (CERES)-Maize model has been utilized to determine the appropriate PD and N-fertilizer rate. An experimental study of PD (55,555, 62500, and 76,900 plants ha−1) and N (138, 207, and 276 kg N ha−1) levels was conducted for 3 years at 4 distinct sites. The DSSAT-CERES-Maize model was calibrated using climate data from 1987 to 2018, physicochemical soil profiling data (wilting point, field capacity, saturation, saturated hydraulic conductivity, root growth factor, bulk density, soil texture, organic carbon, total nitrogen; and soil pH), and agronomic management data from the experiment. After calibration, the DSSAT-CERES-Maize model was able to simulate the phenology and growth parameters of maize in the evaluation data set. The results from analysis of variance revealed that the maximum observed and simulated grain yield, biomass, and leaf area index were recorded from 276 kg N ha−1 and 76,900 plants ha−1 for the BH540 maize variety under the current climate condition. The application of 76,900 plants ha−1 combined with 276 kg N ha−1 significantly increased observed and simulated yield by 25% and 15%, respectively, compared with recommendation. Finally, future research on different N and PD levels in various agroecological zones with different varieties of mature maize types could be conducted for the current and future climate periods.

Maize Model Planting Density CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA MAIZE MODELS SPACING NITROGEN FERTILIZERS YIELDS

Corrección de defectos óseos en el área de Ingeniería tisular

Correction of bone defects by tissue Engineering

ROSA ALICIA SAUCEDO ACUÑA MONICA GALICIA GARCIA JUDITH VIRGINIA RIOS ARANA SIMON YOBANNY REYES LOPEZ (2012, [Artículo])

Hoy en día, los defectos óseos representan uno de los casos de mayor impacto en la salud debido a la frecuencia con que éstos ocurren a causa de traumatismos, fracturas, enfermedades congénitas o degenerativas. En la actualidad, los implantes de tejido óseo de gran volumen se encuentran severamente restringidos a causa de las limitaciones de difusión en la interacción con el ambiente del huésped para los nutrientes, intercambio gaseoso y eliminación de desechos. Es por ello que la corrección de los defectos óseos ha cobrado gran importancia en el área de Ingeniería tisular buscando mejorar las estrategias clínicas para su tratamiento. El propósito de esta revisión es proporcionar un panorama general del desarrollo de andamios para la regeneración de tejido óseo, mostrando los avances logrados en los ensayos in vitro e in vivo en la última década

Currently, bone defects cases represent a major impact on health due to how often they occur because of trauma, fractures, congenital or degenerative diseases. Now, bone implants to large volume are severely restricted because of the diffusion limitations in the interaction

with the environment of the host for nutrients, gas exchange and waste disposal. That is why the correction of bone defects has become very important in the field of tissue engineering looking to improve clinical strategies for treatment. The purpose of this review is to provide an overview of the development of scaffolds for bone tissue regeneration, showing the progress made in the in vitro and in vivo in recent decades.

MEDICINA Y CIENCIAS DE LA SALUD Ingeniería tisular regeneración ósea Andamio Tissue engineering Bone regeneration Scaffolds

Esquema de objetivos de inflación, compromiso, comunicación y credibilidad: ¿por qué el Banco de México muestra dificultad para cumplir con su objetivo puntual de inflación del 3%?

César Geovanny Ángeles Sánchez (2021, [Tesis de maestría])

El presente documento realiza tres ejercicios empíricos para los temas de compromiso, comunicación y credibilidad del Banco de México. En última instancia, se busca responder al porqué, durante la implementación del esquema de objetivos de inflación (2003-2020), el Banco de México ha mostrado dificultad para cumplir con su objetivo puntual de inflación del 3%. Ya que, como lo indican los promedios de las series de tiempo, durante este periodo los niveles de la inflación y de las distintas expectativas de inflación se han ubicado por encima de la meta. Si bien los resultados confirman la credibilidad que tiene el Banco de México con el mantener una inflación baja y estable; siguiendo una regla de Taylor, se encuentra evidencia que, durante el periodo 2003-2020, el Banco de México ha sido tolerante con brechas positivas en el nivel de inflación (acentuándose, de manera significativa, durante el 2015-2020). En otras palabras, los resultados del documento sugieren que, durante la implementación del esquema de objetivos de inflación, el Banco de México ha ajustado su tasa de interés en busca de un nivel de inflación que se ubique en el intervalo que va del 3% + 1 punto porcentual pero no en la meta del 3%. Asimismo, resulta interesante que, del 2007 al 2020, cambios en la tasa de interés hayan sido motivados por brechas en el nivel de producción (tal como si el banco central mantuviese un mandato dual). Finalmente, a través de la construcción de un índice de comunicación que emplea los anuncios de política monetaria, se encuentra evidencia que la comunicación del Banco de México influye en las expectativas de inflación implicitas en instrumentos financieros y permite anticipar futuros movimientos en la tasa de interés (“forward guidance”).

Banco de México (1925- ) -- Effect of inflation (Finance) on -- Econometric models. Banks and banking, Central -- Mexico -- Econometric models. CIENCIAS SOCIALES CIENCIAS SOCIALES

Big data, small explanatory and predictive power: Lessons from random forest modeling of on-farm yield variability and implications for data-driven agronomy

Martin van Ittersum (2023, [Artículo])

Context: Collection and analysis of large volumes of on-farm production data are widely seen as key to understanding yield variability among farmers and improving resource-use efficiency. Objective: The aim of this study was to assess the performance of statistical and machine learning methods to explain and predict crop yield across thousands of farmers’ fields in contrasting farming systems worldwide. Methods: A large database of 10,940 field-year combinations from three countries in different stages of agricultural intensification was analyzed. Random effects models were used to partition crop yield variability and random forest models were used to explain and predict crop yield within a cross-validation scheme with data re-sampling over space and time. Results: Yield variability in relative terms was smallest for wheat and barley in the Netherlands and for wheat in Ethiopia, intermediate for rice in the Philippines, and greatest for maize in Ethiopia. Random forest models comprising a total of 87 variables explained a maximum of 65 % of cereal yield variability in the Netherlands and less than 45 % of cereal yield variability in Ethiopia and in the Philippines. Crop management related variables were important to explain and predict cereal yields in Ethiopia, while predictive (i.e., known before the growing season) climatic variables and explanatory (i.e., known during or after the growing season) climatic variables were most important to explain and predict cereal yield variability in the Philippines and in the Netherlands, respectively. Finally, model cross-validation for regions or years not seen during model training reduced the R2 considerably for most crop x country combinations, while for wheat in the Netherlands this was model dependent. Conclusion: Big data from farmers’ fields is useful to explain on-farm yield variability to some extent, but not to predict it across time and space. Significance: The results call for moderate expectations towards big data and machine learning in agronomic studies, particularly for smallholder farms in the tropics where model performance was poorest independently of the variables considered and the cross-validation scheme used.

Model Accuracy Model Precision Linear Mixed Models CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA MACHINE LEARNING SUSTAINABLE INTENSIFICATION BIG DATA YIELDS MODELS AGRONOMY

Using an incomplete block design to allocate lines to environments improves sparse genome-based prediction in plant breeding

Osval Antonio Montesinos-Lopez ABELARDO MONTESINOS LOPEZ RICARDO ACOSTA DIAZ Rajeev Varshney Jose Crossa ALISON BENTLEY (2022, [Artículo])

Genomic selection (GS) is a predictive methodology that trains statistical machine-learning models with a reference population that is used to perform genome-enabled predictions of new lines. In plant breeding, it has the potential to increase the speed and reduce the cost of selection. However, to optimize resources, sparse testing methods have been proposed. A common approach is to guarantee a proportion of nonoverlapping and overlapping lines allocated randomly in locations, that is, lines appearing in some locations but not in all. In this study we propose using incomplete block designs (IBD), principally, for the allocation of lines to locations in such a way that not all lines are observed in all locations. We compare this allocation with a random allocation of lines to locations guaranteeing that the lines are allocated to

the same number of locations as under the IBD design. We implemented this benchmarking on several crop data sets under the Bayesian genomic best linear unbiased predictor (GBLUP) model, finding that allocation under the principle of IBD outperformed random allocation by between 1.4% and 26.5% across locations, traits, and data sets in terms of mean square error. Although a wide range of performance improvements were observed, our results provide evidence that using IBD for the allocation of lines to locations can help improve predictive performance compared with random allocation. This has the potential to be applied to large-scale plant breeding programs.

CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA Bayes Theorem Genome Inflammatory Bowel Diseases Models, Genetic Plant Breeding

Point placement of late vegetative stage nitrogen splits increase the productivity, N-use efficiency and profitability of tropical maize under decade long conservation agriculture

Hari Sankar Nayak C.M. Parihar Shankar Lal Jat ML JAT Ahmed Abdallah (2022, [Artículo])

Non-Linear Growth Model Nitrogen Remobilization Right Placement Precision Nitrogen Management CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA GROWTH MODELS NITROGEN NUTRIENT MANAGEMENT

Alternative cropping and feeding options to enhance sustainability of mixed crop-livestock farms in Bangladesh

Timothy Joseph Krupnik Jeroen Groot (2024, [Artículo])

We investigated alternative cropping and feeding options for large (>10 cows), medium (5–10 cows) and small (≤4 cows) mixed crop – livestock farm types, to enhance economic and environmental performance in Jhenaidha and Meherpur districts – locations with increasing dairy production – in south western Bangladesh. Following focus group discussions with farmers on constraints and opportunities, we collected baseline data from one representative farm from each farm size class per district (six in total) to parameterize the whole-farm model FarmDESIGN. The six modelled farms were subjected to Pareto-based multi-objective (differential evolution algorithm) optimization to generate alternative dairy farm and fodder configurations. The objectives were to maximize farm profit, soil organic matter balance, and feed self-reliance, in addition to minimizing feed costs and soil nitrogen losses as indicators of sustainability. The cropped areas of the six baseline farms ranged from 0.6 to 4.0 ha and milk production per cow was between 1,640 and 3,560 kg year−1. Feed self-reliance was low (17%–57%) and soil N losses were high (74–342 kg ha−1 year−1). Subsequent trade-off analysis showed that increasing profit and soil organic matter balance was associated with higher risks of N losses. However, we found opportunities to improve economic and environmental performance simultaneously. Feed self-reliance could be increased by intensifying cropping and substituting fallow periods with appropriate fodder crops. For the farm type with the largest opportunity space and room to manoeuvre, we identified four strategies. Three strategies could be economically and environmentally benign, showing different opportunities for farm development with locally available resources.

Ruminant Feed Pareto-Based Optimization Farm Bioeconomic Model CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA RUMINANT FEEDING BIOECONOMIC MODELS MIXED CROPPING FARMS LIVESTOCK