Review of Nationally Determined Contributions (NCD) of China from the perspective of food systems

Tek Sapkota (2023, [Documento de trabajo])

China is the largest emitter of greenhouse gases (GHG) and one of the countries most affected by climate change. China's food systems are a major contributor to climate change: in 2018, China's food systems emitted 1.09 billion tons of carbondioxide equivalent (CO2eq) GHGs, accounting for 8.2% of total national GHG emissions and 2% of global emissions. According to the Third National Communication (TNC) Report, in 2010, GHG emissions from energy, industrial processes, agriculture, and waste accounted for 78.6%, 12.3%, 7.9%, and 1.2% of total emissions, respectively, (excluding emissions from land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF). Total GHG emissions from the waste sector in 2010 were 132 Mt CO2 eq, with municipal solid waste landfills accounting for 56 Mt. The average temperature in China has risen by 1.1°C over the last century (1908–2007), while nationally averaged precipitation amounts have increased significantly over the last 50 years. The sea level and sea surface temperature have risen by 90 mm and 0.9°C respectively in the last 30 years. A regional climate model predicted an annual mean temperature increase of 1.3–2.1°C by 2020 (2.3–3.3°C by 2050), while another model predicted a 1–1.6°C temperature increase and a 3.3–3.7 percent increase in precipitation between 2011 and 2020, depending on the emissions scenario. By 2030, sea level rise along coastal areas could be 0.01–0.16 meters, increasing the likelihood of flooding and intensified storm surges and causing the degradation of wetlands, mangroves, and coral reefs. Addressing climate change is a common human cause, and China places a high value on combating climate change. Climate change has been incorporated into national economic and social development plans, with equal emphasis on mitigation and adaptation to climate change, including an updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) in 2021. The following overarching targets are included in China's updated NDC: • Peaking carbon dioxide emissions “before 2030” and achieving carbon neutrality before 2060. • Lowering carbon intensity by “over 65%” by 2030 from the 2005 level. • Increasing forest stock volume by around 6 billion cubic meters in 2030 from the 2005 level. The targets have come from several commitments made at various events, while China has explained very well the process adopted to produce its third national communication report. An examination of China's NDC reveals that it has failed to establish quantifiable and measurable targets in the agricultural sectors. According to the analysis of the breakdown of food systems and their inclusion in the NDC, the majority of food system activities are poorly mentioned. China's interventions or ambitions in this sector have received very little attention. The adaptation component is mentioned in the NDC, but is not found to be sector-specific or comprehensive. A few studies have rated the Chinese NDC as insufficient, one of the reasons being its failure to list the breakdown of each sector's clear pathway to achieving its goals. China's NDC lacks quantified data on food system sub-sectors. Climate Action Trackers' "Insufficient" rating indicates that China's domestic target for 2030 requires significant improvements to be consistent with the Paris Agreement's target of 1.5°C temperature limit. Some efforts are being made: for example, scientists from the Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (IEDA-CAAS) have developed methods for calculating GHG emissions from livestock and poultry farmers that have been published as an industrial standard by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, PRC (Prof Hongmin Dong, personal communication) but this still needs to be consolidated and linked to China’s NDC. The updated Nationally Determined Contributions fall short of quantifiable targets in agriculture and food systems as a whole, necessitating clear pathways. China's NDC is found to be heavily focused on a few sectors, including energy, transportation, and urban-rural development. The agricultural sectors' and food systems' targets are vague, and China's agrifood system has a large carbon footprint. As a result, China should focus on managing the food system (production, processing, transportation, and food waste management) to reduce carbon emissions. Furthermore, China should take additional measures to make its climate actions more comprehensive, quantifiable, and measurable, such as setting ambitious and clear targets for the agriculture sector, including activity-specific GHG-reduction pathways; prioritizing food waste and loss reduction and management; promoting sustainable livestock production and low carbon diets; reducing chemical pollution; minimizing the use of fossil fuel in the agri-system and focusing on developing green jobs, technological advancement and promoting climate-smart agriculture; promoting indigenous practices and locally led adaptation; restoring degraded agricultural soils and enhancing cooperation and private partnership. China should also prepare detailed NDC implementation plans including actions and the GHG reduction from conditional targets.

CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS CLIMATE CHANGE FOOD SYSTEMS LAND USE CHANGE AGRICULTURE POLICIES DATA ANALYSIS FOOD WASTES

Agroecology can promote climate change adaptation outcomes without compromising yield in smallholder systems

Sieglinde Snapp Yodit Kebede Eva Wollenberg (2023, [Artículo])

A critical question is whether agroecology can promote climate change mitigation and adaptation outcomes without compromising food security. We assessed the outcomes of smallholder agricultural systems and practices in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) against 35 mitigation, adaptation, and yield indicators by reviewing 50 articles with 77 cases of agroecological treatments relative to a baseline of conventional practices. Crop yields were higher for 63% of cases reporting yields. Crop diversity, income diversity, net income, reduced income variability, nutrient regulation, and reduced pest infestation, indicators of adaptative capacity, were associated with 70% or more of cases. Limited information on climate change mitigation, such as greenhouse gas emissions and carbon sequestration impacts, was available. Overall, the evidence indicates that use of organic nutrient sources, diversifying systems with legumes and integrated pest management lead to climate change adaptation in multiple contexts. Landscape mosaics, biological control (e.g., enhancement of beneficial organisms) and field sanitation measures do not yet have sufficient evidence based on this review. Widespread adoption of agroecological practices and system transformations shows promise to contribute to climate change services and food security in LMICs. Gaps in adaptation and mitigation strategies and areas for policy and research interventions are finally discussed.

CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA CLIMATE CHANGE CROPS FOOD SUPPLY GAS EMISSIONS GREENHOUSE GASES FARMING SYSTEMS AGROECOLOGY FOOD SECURITY LESS FAVOURED AREAS SMALLHOLDERS YIELDS NUTRIENTS BIOLOGICAL PEST CONTROL CARBON SEQUESTRATION LEGUMES

Agricultura en tiempos de incertidumbre: ¿qué podemos hacer?

Jelle Van Loon (2022, [Objeto de congreso])

CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA FOOD SECURITY INFLATION FOOD PRICES AGRIFOOD SYSTEMS CLIMATE CHANGE SUSTAINABLE INTENSIFICATION

Redes de innovación para el escalamiento de prácticas sustentables: Hubs y la Iniciativa AgriLac Resiliente de OneCGIAR

Jelle Van Loon (2022, [Objeto de congreso])

CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA AGRIFOOD SYSTEMS INNOVATION SUSTAINABLE INTENSIFICATION TRAINING RESEARCH

MLN disease diagnostics, surveillance, MLN disease-free seed production, and MLN disease management

Suresh L.M. (2022, [Objeto de congreso])

CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA DISEASES DISEASE MANAGEMENT SEED PRODUCTION MAIZE NECROSIS YIELD LOSSES ECONOMIC IMPACT SURVEILLANCE SYSTEMS TRAINING

Appropriate surveillance and diagnostics tools in preventing the spread of Maize Lethal Necrosis (MNL) to Southern Africa

Suresh L.M. (2022, [Objeto de congreso])

CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA MAIZE DISEASES SEED PRODUCTION MONITORING SYSTEMS TRAINING

Sowing the wheat seeds of Afghanistan's future

Nigel Poole Rajiv Sharma Orzala Nemat Jason Donovan Alison Bentley (2022, [Artículo])

Humanitarian Intervention CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA FOOD SECURITY IRRIGATION NUTRITION PLANT BREEDING SEED SYSTEMS

Sustainability assessment of vegetables farms in Benin: preliminary results

Sylvanus Odjo (2023, [Objeto de congreso])

CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA SUSTAINABILITY ASSESSMENT VEGETABLES STAPLE FOODS AGRIFOOD SYSTEMS FRUITS FARMERS

CIMMYT seed systems interventions

&

lessons to Bangladesh

AbduRahman Issa (2023, [Objeto de congreso])

CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA SEED SYSTEMS VALUE CHAINS POLICIES HYBRIDS MAIZE WHEAT

Multicriteria assessment of alternative cropping systems at farm level. A case with maize on family farms of South East Asia

Santiago Lopez-Ridaura (2023, [Artículo])

CONTEXT: Integration of farms into markets with adoption of maize as a cash crop can significantly increase income of farms of the developing world. However, in some cases, the income generated may still be very low and maize production may also have strong negative environmental and social impacts. OBJECTIVE: Maize production in northern Laos is taken as a case to study how far can farms' performance be improved with improved crop management of maize with the following changes at field level: good timing and optimal soil preparation and sowing, allowing optimal crop establishment and low weed infestation. METHODS: We compared different farm types' performance on locally relevant criteria and indicators embodying the three pillars of sustainability (environmental, economic and social). An integrated assessment approach was combined with direct measurement of indicators in farmers' fields to assess eleven criteria of local farm sustainability. A bio-economic farm model was used for scenario assessment in which changes in crop management and the economic environment of farms were compared to present situation. The farm model was based on mathematical programming maximizing income under constraints related to i) household composition, initial cash and rice stocks and land type, and ii) seasonal balances of cash, labour and food. The crop management scenarios were built based on a diagnosis of the causes of variations in the agronomic and environmental performances of cropping systems, carried out in farmers' fields. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Our study showed that moderate changes in crop management on maize would improve substantially farm performance on 4 to 6 criteria out of the 11 assessed, depending on farm types. The improved crop management of maize had a high economic attractiveness for every farm type simulated (low, medium and high resource endowed farms) even at simulated production costs more than doubling current costs of farmers' practices. However, while an improvement of the systems performance was attained in terms of agricultural productivity, income generation, work and ease of work, herbicide leaching, improved soil quality and nitrogen balance, trade-offs were identified with other indicators such as erosion control and cash outflow needed at the beginning of the cropping season. SIGNIFICANCE: Using farm modelling for multicriteria assessment of current and improved maize cropping systems for contrasted farm types helped capture main opportunities and constraints on local farm sustainability, and assess the trade-offs that new options at field level may generate at farm level.

Bio-Economic Farm Model Smallholder Farms CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA CASH CROPS INDICATORS SMALLHOLDERS CROPPING SYSTEMS MAIZE