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Potential impacts of Ukraine-Russia armed conflict on global wheat food security: A quantitative exploration

Khondoker Mottaleb Gideon Kruseman Sieglinde Snapp (2022, [Artículo])

Violent conflict is a major cause of acute food crises. In 2021, at least 155 million people in 10 countries were severely food insecure and eight of those countries were experiencing armed conflict. On February 24, 2022, an armed conflict between Russian Federation (Russia) and Ukraine escalated. As Russia and Ukraine are major wheat exporters, this will aggravate the already precarious food security situation in many developing countries by disrupting wheat production and export and by accelerating price hikes in import-dependent developing countries. This study examines the potential impacts of this ongoing armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine on wheat price, consumption, and calorie intake from wheat. In doing so, it applies the conditional mixed process estimation procedure using information collected from 163 countries and territories for the years 2016–2019 from online database of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). The study shows that, on average, a 1% decrease in the global wheat trade could increase the producers' price of wheat by 1.1%, and a 1% increase in the producers' price could reduce the yearly per capita wheat consumption by 0.59%, daily calorie intake by 0.54% and protein intake by 0.64% in the sampled countries. Based on this, the study demonstrates that a 50% reduction in wheat exports by Russia and Ukraine could increase the producers’ price of wheat by 15%, which would induce a reduction in wheat consumption and dietary energy intake by at least 8%. Since wheat export has reduced from both Russia and Ukraine, to avoid a food crisis in developing countries, policies are suggested, including near term improvement of domestic wheat production by promoting improved agronomic practices to close yield gaps to meet a substantial portion of wheat self-sufficiency goals. In the long run, countries in Africa, East Asia and South America can explore expanding wheat into new land area. International donor agencies can play a key role in supporting the ongoing wheat research and development activities.

Export-Import CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA ARMED CONFLICTS CALORIES CONSUMPTION ELASTICITY FOOD SECURITY PRICES PRODUCTION WHEAT

Using microsatellite data to estimate the persistence of field-level yield gaps and their drivers in smallholder systems

Balwinder-Singh Meha Jain (2023, [Artículo])

One way to meet growing food demand is to increase yields in regions that have large yield gaps, including smallholder systems. To do this, it is important to quantify yield gaps, their persistence, and their drivers at large spatio-temporal scales. Here we use microsatellite data to map field-level yields from 2014 to 2018 in Bihar, India and use these data to assess the magnitude, persistence, and drivers of yield gaps at the landscape scale. We find that overall yield gaps are large (33% of mean yields), but only 17% of yields are persistent across time. We find that sowing date, plot area, and weather are the factors that most explain variation in yield gaps across our study region, with earlier sowing associated with significantly higher yield values. Simulations suggest that if all farmers were able to adopt ideal management strategies, including earlier sowing and more irrigation use, yield gaps could be closed by up to 42%. These results highlight the ability of micro-satellite data to understand yield gaps and their drivers, and can be used to help identify ways to increase production in smallholder systems across the globe.

Yield Drivers Yield Mapping CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA MICROSATELLITES YIELD GAP SMALLHOLDERS FOOD PRODUCTION YIELD INCREASES

Local markets and food security. The case of the Milpera and Puuc regions in Yucatan

Ana Laura Bojórquez Carrillo Monserrat Vargas Jiménez Mireya Noemi Hernández Islas (2023, [Artículo, Artículo])

Food insecurity is a complex problem worldwide. A major part of this problem is the food supply. Local markets can represent a strategy for building social capital, as well as strategies for subsistence and sustainability of food value chains, contributing to food security and its effects. The objective of this research is to determine if the existence of a municipal market in the Milpera and Puuc regions of Yucatán favors the existence of food security, the consumption or the expense of natural foods. The population is located in 18 municipalities of Yucatán, Mexico. To carry out this study, a cross-sectional, non-experimental study, with a quantitative approach and correlational scope. The main techniques that were applied were descriptive statistics and contingency tables with respect to 6 hypotheses. This work shows that the existence of markets in the communities makes a significant difference because it positively impacts the food security of the inhabitants, since it allows them to have access to a wider variety of products and at the same time, favors the active dynamics of the economy of the community.

Local markets Food safety Local development Food sovereignty Rural areas Mercados locales Seguridad alimentaria Desarrollo local Soberanía alimentaria Zonas rurales CIENCIAS SOCIALES CIENCIAS SOCIALES