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5 resultados, página 1 de 1

Near-real-time welfare and livelihood impacts of an active war: Evidence from Ethiopia

Kibrom  Abay Guush Berhane Jordan Chamberlin Mehari Hiluf Abay (2023, [Artículo])

Ethiopia recently experienced a large-scale war that lasted for more than two years. Using unique High-Frequency Phone Survey (HFPS) data, which span several months before and after the outbreak of the war, this paper provides evidence on the immediate impacts of the conflict on households’ food security. We also assess potential mechanisms and evaluate impacts on proximate outcomes, including on livelihood activities and access to food markets. We use difference-in-differences and two-way fixed effects estimation to compare trends across affected and unaffected regions (households) and before and after the outbreak of the war. Seven months into the conflict, we find that the war was associated with a 37 percentage points increase in the probability of moderate to severe food insecurity. Using the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED), we show that exposure to an additional battle leads to a 1 percentage point increase in the probability of moderate or severe food insecurity. The conflict was associated with significant reduction in access to food through supply chain disruptions and by curtailing non-farm livelihood activities. Non-farm and wage related activities were affected the most, whereas farming activities were relatively more resilient. Our estimates, which likely underestimate the true average effects on the population, constitute novel evidence on the near-real-time impacts of large-scale conflict. Our work highlights the potential of HFPS to monitor active and large-scale conflicts, especially in contexts where conventional data sources are not immediately available.

Phone Surveys CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA WAR CONFLICTS FOOD SECURITY LIVELIHOODS

On-farm storage loss estimates of maize in Kenya using community survey methods

Hugo De Groote Anani Bruce (2023, [Artículo])

Maize is the most important staple in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), with highly seasonal production. High storage losses affect food security, but good estimations are lacking. A new method using focus group discussions (FGDs) was tested with 121 communities (1439 farmers, 52% women) in Kenya's six maize-growing zones, to estimate the maize losses to storage pests and analyze farmer practices. As control strategies, half of the farmers used chemical pesticides (49%), while hermetic bags (16%) and botanicals (15%) were also popular. Relative loss from weevils in the long rains was estimated at 23%, in the short rains 18%, and annually 21%. Fewer farmers were affected by the larger grain borer (LGB) than by maize weevils: 42% in the long rainy season and 32% in the short rainy season; losses from LGB were also smaller: 19% in the long season, 17% in the short season, and 18% over the year. Total storage loss, from both species combined, was estimated at 36%, or 671,000 tonnes per year. The greatest losses occur in the humid areas, especially the moist mid-altitudes (56%), and with smaller loss in the drylands (20–23%). Extrapolating the point data and overlaying with the maize production map shows the geographic distribution of the losses, with the most important area found around Lake Victoria. FGDs provide convenient and cheap tools to estimate storage losses in representative communities, but a total loss estimate of 36% is higher than is found in other studies, so its accuracy and framing effects need to be assessed. We conclude that storage pests remain a major problem, especially in western Kenya, and that the use of environmentally friendly technologies such as hermetic storage and botanicals needs more attention, both by the public extension service and private agrodealers.

Larger Grain Borer Maize Weevil CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA MAIZE STORAGE LOSSES PESTS SURVEY METHODS