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A critical question is whether agroecology can promote climate change mitigation and adaptation outcomes without compromising food security. We assessed the outcomes of smallholder agricultural systems and practices in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) against 35 mitigation, adaptation, and yield indicators by reviewing 50 articles with 77 cases of agroecological treatments relative to a baseline of conventional practices. Crop yields were higher for 63% of cases reporting yields. Crop diversity, income diversity, net income, reduced income variability, nutrient regulation, and reduced pest infestation, indicators of adaptative capacity, were associated with 70% or more of cases. Limited information on climate change mitigation, such as greenhouse gas emissions and carbon sequestration impacts, was available. Overall, the evidence indicates that use of organic nutrient sources, diversifying systems with legumes and integrated pest management lead to climate change adaptation in multiple contexts. Landscape mosaics, biological control (e.g., enhancement of beneficial organisms) and field sanitation measures do not yet have sufficient evidence based on this review. Widespread adoption of agroecological practices and system transformations shows promise to contribute to climate change services and food security in LMICs. Gaps in adaptation and mitigation strategies and areas for policy and research interventions are finally discussed.

CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA CLIMATE CHANGE CROPS FOOD SUPPLY GAS EMISSIONS GREENHOUSE GASES FARMING SYSTEMS AGROECOLOGY FOOD SECURITY LESS FAVOURED AREAS SMALLHOLDERS YIELDS NUTRIENTS BIOLOGICAL PEST CONTROL CARBON SEQUESTRATION LEGUMES

Closing the yield gap of soybean (Glycine max (L.) Merril) in Southern Africa: a case of Malawi, Zambia, and Mozambique

Siyabusa Mkuhlani Isaiah Nyagumbo (2023, [Artículo])

Introduction: Smallholder farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are increasingly producing soybean for food, feed, cash, and soil fertility improvement. Yet, the difference between the smallholder farmers’ yield and either the attainable in research fields or the potential from crop models is wide. Reasons for the yield gap include low to nonapplication of appropriate fertilizers and inoculants, late planting, low plant populations, recycling seeds, etc. Methods: Here, we reviewed the literature on the yield gap and the technologies for narrowing it and modelled yields through the right sowing dates and suitable high-yielding varieties in APSIM. Results and Discussion: Results highlighted that between 2010 and 2020 in SSA, soybean production increased; however, it was through an expansion in the cropped area rather than a yield increase per hectare. Also, the actual smallholder farmers’ yield was 3.8, 2.2, and 2.3 times lower than the attainable yield in Malawi, Zambia, and Mozambique, respectively. Through inoculants, soybean yield increased by 23.8%. Coupling this with either 40 kg ha−1 of P or 60 kg ha−1 of K boosted the yields by 89.1% and 26.0%, respectively. Overall, application of 21–30 kg ha-1 of P to soybean in SSA could increase yields by about 48.2%. Furthermore, sowing at the right time increased soybean yield by 300%. Although these technologies enhance soybean yields, they are not fully embraced by smallholder farmers. Hence, refining and bundling them in a digital advisory tool will enhance the availability of the correct information to smallholder farmers at the right time and improve soybean yields per unit area.

Decision Support Tools Digital Tools Site-Specific Recommendations CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS LEGUMES YIELDS SOYBEANS

On-farm assessment of yield and quality traits in durum wheat

Facundo Tabbita Iván Ortíz-Monasterios Francisco Javier Pinera-Chavez Maria Itria Ibba Carlos Guzman (2023, [Artículo])

BACKGROUND: Durum wheat is key source of calories and nutrients for many regions of the world. Demand for it is predicted to increase. Further efforts are therefore needed to develop new cultivars adapted to different future scenarios. Developing a novel cultivar takes, on average, 10 years and advanced lines are tested during the process, in general, under standardized conditions. Although evaluating candidate genotypes for commercial release under different on-farm conditions is a strategy that is strongly recommended, its application for durum wheat and particularly for quality traits has been limited. This study evaluated the grain yield and quality performance of eight different genotypes across five contrasting farmers’ fields over two seasons. Combining different analysis strategies, the most outstanding and stable genotypes were identified. RESULTS: The analyses revealed that some traits were mainly explained by the genotype effect (thousand kernel weight, flour sodium dodecyl sulfate sedimentation volume, and flour yellowness), others by the management practices (yield and grain protein content), and others (test weight) by the year effect. In general, yield showed the highest range of variation across genotypes, management practices, and years and test weight the narrowest range. Flour yellowness was the most stable trait across management conditions, while yield-related traits were the most unstable. We also determined the most representative and discriminative field conditions, which is a beneficial strategy when breeders are constrained in their ability to develop multi-environment experiments. CONCLUSIONS: We concluded that assessing genotypes in different farming systems is a valid and complementary strategy for on-station trials for determining the performance of future commercial cultivars in heterogeneous environments to improve the breeding process and resources.

Wheat Quality GGE Analysis Flour Yellowness CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA FLOURS WHEAT QUALITY YIELDS FIELD EXPERIMENTATION

Big data, small explanatory and predictive power: Lessons from random forest modeling of on-farm yield variability and implications for data-driven agronomy

Martin van Ittersum (2023, [Artículo])

Context: Collection and analysis of large volumes of on-farm production data are widely seen as key to understanding yield variability among farmers and improving resource-use efficiency. Objective: The aim of this study was to assess the performance of statistical and machine learning methods to explain and predict crop yield across thousands of farmers’ fields in contrasting farming systems worldwide. Methods: A large database of 10,940 field-year combinations from three countries in different stages of agricultural intensification was analyzed. Random effects models were used to partition crop yield variability and random forest models were used to explain and predict crop yield within a cross-validation scheme with data re-sampling over space and time. Results: Yield variability in relative terms was smallest for wheat and barley in the Netherlands and for wheat in Ethiopia, intermediate for rice in the Philippines, and greatest for maize in Ethiopia. Random forest models comprising a total of 87 variables explained a maximum of 65 % of cereal yield variability in the Netherlands and less than 45 % of cereal yield variability in Ethiopia and in the Philippines. Crop management related variables were important to explain and predict cereal yields in Ethiopia, while predictive (i.e., known before the growing season) climatic variables and explanatory (i.e., known during or after the growing season) climatic variables were most important to explain and predict cereal yield variability in the Philippines and in the Netherlands, respectively. Finally, model cross-validation for regions or years not seen during model training reduced the R2 considerably for most crop x country combinations, while for wheat in the Netherlands this was model dependent. Conclusion: Big data from farmers’ fields is useful to explain on-farm yield variability to some extent, but not to predict it across time and space. Significance: The results call for moderate expectations towards big data and machine learning in agronomic studies, particularly for smallholder farms in the tropics where model performance was poorest independently of the variables considered and the cross-validation scheme used.

Model Accuracy Model Precision Linear Mixed Models CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA MACHINE LEARNING SUSTAINABLE INTENSIFICATION BIG DATA YIELDS MODELS AGRONOMY