Esquema de objetivos de inflación, compromiso, comunicación y credibilidad: ¿por qué el Banco de México muestra dificultad para cumplir con su objetivo puntual de inflación del 3%?

César Geovanny Ángeles Sánchez (2021, [Tesis de maestría])

El presente documento realiza tres ejercicios empíricos para los temas de compromiso, comunicación y credibilidad del Banco de México. En última instancia, se busca responder al porqué, durante la implementación del esquema de objetivos de inflación (2003-2020), el Banco de México ha mostrado dificultad para cumplir con su objetivo puntual de inflación del 3%. Ya que, como lo indican los promedios de las series de tiempo, durante este periodo los niveles de la inflación y de las distintas expectativas de inflación se han ubicado por encima de la meta. Si bien los resultados confirman la credibilidad que tiene el Banco de México con el mantener una inflación baja y estable; siguiendo una regla de Taylor, se encuentra evidencia que, durante el periodo 2003-2020, el Banco de México ha sido tolerante con brechas positivas en el nivel de inflación (acentuándose, de manera significativa, durante el 2015-2020). En otras palabras, los resultados del documento sugieren que, durante la implementación del esquema de objetivos de inflación, el Banco de México ha ajustado su tasa de interés en busca de un nivel de inflación que se ubique en el intervalo que va del 3% + 1 punto porcentual pero no en la meta del 3%. Asimismo, resulta interesante que, del 2007 al 2020, cambios en la tasa de interés hayan sido motivados por brechas en el nivel de producción (tal como si el banco central mantuviese un mandato dual). Finalmente, a través de la construcción de un índice de comunicación que emplea los anuncios de política monetaria, se encuentra evidencia que la comunicación del Banco de México influye en las expectativas de inflación implicitas en instrumentos financieros y permite anticipar futuros movimientos en la tasa de interés (“forward guidance”).

Banco de México (1925- ) -- Effect of inflation (Finance) on -- Econometric models. Banks and banking, Central -- Mexico -- Econometric models. CIENCIAS SOCIALES CIENCIAS SOCIALES

Editorial: Sorghum and pearl millet as climate resilient crops for food and nutrition security

Palak Chaturvedi Mahalingam Govindaraj Govindan Velu Wolfram Weckwerth (2022, [Artículo])

Climate Smart Crops Foxtail Millet CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA BREEDING FINGER MILLET FOOD SECURITY SETARIA ITALICA GENETIC RESOURCES PEARL MILLET SORGHUM

La superación del indígena : la política de la modernización entre las élites indígenas de Comalapa, siglo XX

Edgar Arturo Esquit Choy (2008, [Tesis de doctorado])

En este trabajo argumentaré que las luchas de ciertos sectores indígenas por la superación o la modernización y las transformaciones culturales que ellos vivieron, por lo menos en algunos pueblos del altiplano central y en Comalapa, no estuvieron limitadas a los procesos nacionales y mundiales de mediados del siglo XX, sino tuvieron un vínculo importante con el proceso de formación nacional liberal y capitalista guatemalteco y mundial, gestados desde finales del siglo XIX y durante el XX. Esta primera aseveración se vincula a otras conclusiones que afirman, que la comunidad corporativa indígena en Guatemala se formó no como una respuesta a la explotación económica en sí misma, sino como un rechazo al intento del Estado de eliminar la autonomía indígena local.

Indios de América Central -- Guatemala -- Condiciones Sociales Cambio Social -- Comalapa, Guatemala Comalapa, Guatemala -- Vida Social y Costumbres Comalapa, Guatemala -- Política y Gobierno HUMANIDADES Y CIENCIAS DE LA CONDUCTA ANTROPOLOGÍA ANTROPOLOGÍA CULTURAL ANTROPOLOGÍA CULTURAL

Biofortification to avoid malnutrition in humans in a changing climate: Enhancing micronutrient bioavailability in seed, tuber, and storage roots

Ana Luisa Garcia-Oliveira Mahalingam Govindaraj Rodomiro Ortiz (2023, [Artículo])

Bioaccessibility and Absorption Biofortified Crop Cultivars Genes and Genetic Markers Nutrient Acquisition Transport and Storage CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA BIOAVAILABILITY ABSORPTION CLIMATE CHANGE GENETIC MARKERS GENETIC ENGINEERING NUTRIENTS TRANSPORT STORAGE

GWAS identifies genetic loci underlying nitrogen responsiveness in the climate resilient C4 model Setaria italica (L.)

Tirthankar Bandyopadhyay Stéphanie M. Swarbreck Vandana Jaiswal Rajeev Gupta Alison Bentley Manoj Prasad (2022, [Artículo])

C4 Model Crop Climate Resilience CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA CLIMATE RESILIENCE FOOD SECURITY GENE EXPRESSION NITROGEN

Modeling the growth, yield and N dynamics of wheat for decoding the tillage and nitrogen nexus in 8-years long-term conservation agriculture based maize-wheat system

C.M. Parihar Dipaka Ranjan Sena Prakash Chand Ghasal Shankar Lal Jat Yashpal Singh Saharawat Mahesh Gathala Upendra Singh Hari Sankar Nayak (2024, [Artículo])

Context: Agricultural field experiments are costly and time-consuming, and their site-specific nature limits their ability to capture spatial and temporal variability. This hinders the transfer of crop management information across different locations, impeding effective agricultural decision-making. Further, accurate estimates of the benefits and risks of alternative crop and nutrient management options are crucial for effective decision-making in agriculture. Objective: The objective of this study was to utilize the Crop Environment Resource Synthesis CERES-Wheat model to simulate crop growth, yield, and nitrogen dynamics in a long-term conservation agriculture (CA) based wheat system. The study aimed to calibrate the model using data from a field experiment conducted during the 2019-20-2020-21 growing seasons and evaluation it with independent data from the year 2021–22. Method: Crop simulation models, such as the Crop Environment Resource Synthesis CERES-Wheat (DSSAT v 4.8), may provide valuable insights into crop growth and nitrogen dynamics, enabling decision makers to understand and manage production risk more effectively. Therefore, the present study employed the CERES-Wheat (DSSAT v 4.8) model and calibrated it using field data, including plant phenological phases, leaf area index, aboveground biomass, and grain yield from the 2019-20-2020-21 growing seasons. An independent dataset from the year 2021–22 was used for model evaluation. The model was used to investigate the relationship between growing degree days (GDD), temperature, nitrate and ammonical concentration in soil, and nitrogen uptake by the crop. Additionally, the study explored the impact of contrasting tillage practices and fertilizer nitrogen management options on wheat yields. The experimental site is situated at ICAR-Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI), New Delhi, representing Indian Trans-Gangetic Plains Zone (28o 40’N latitude, 77o 11’E longitude and an altitude of 228 m above sea level). The treatments consist of four nitrogen management options, viz., N0 (zero nitrogen), N150 (150 kg N ha−1 through urea), GS (Green seeker based urea application) and USG (urea super granules @150 kg N ha−1) in two contrasting tillage systems, i.e., CA-based zero tillage (ZT) and conventional tillage (CT). Result: The outcomes exhibited favorable agreement between the model’s simulations and the observed data for crop phenology (With less than 2 days variation in 50% onset of flowering), grain and biomass yield (Root mean square error; RMSE 336 kg ha−1 and 649 kg ha−1, respectively), and leaf area index (LAI) (RMSE 0.28 & normalized RMSE; nRMSE 6.69%). The model effectively captured the nitrate-N (NO3−-N) dynamics in the soil profile, exhibiting a remarkable concordance with observed data, as evident from its low RMSE = 12.39 kg ha−1 and nRMSE = 13.69%. Moreover, as it successfully simulated the N balance in the production system, the nitrate leaching and ammonia volatilization pattern as described by the model are highly useful to understand these critical phenomena under both conventional tillage (CT) and CA-based Zero Tillage (ZT) treatments. Conclusion: The study concludes that the DSSAT-CERES-Wheat model has significant potential to assess the impacts of tillage and nitrogen management practices on crop growth, yield, and soil nitrogen dynamics in the western Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP) region. By providing reliable forecasts within the growing season, this modeling approach can facilitate better planning and more efficient resource management. Future implications: The successful implementation of the DSSAT-CERES-Wheat model in this study highlights its applicability in assessing crop performance and soil dynamics. Future research should focus on expanding the model’s capabilities by reducing its sensitivity to initial soil nitrogen levels to refine its predictions further. Moreover, the model’s integration with decision support systems and real-time data can enhance its usefulness in aiding agricultural decision-making and supporting sustainable crop management practices.

Nitrogen Dynamics Mechanistic Crop Growth Models Crop Simulation CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA NITROGEN CONSERVATION AGRICULTURE WHEAT MAIZE CROP GROWTH RATE SIMULATION MODELS

Research for development approaches in mixed crop-livestock systems of the Ethiopian highlands

Million Gebreyes James Hammond Lulseged Tamene Getachew Agegnehu Rabe Yahaya Anthony Whitbread (2023, [Artículo])

This study presents processes and success stories that emerged from Africa RISING's Research for Development project in the Ethiopian Highlands. The project has tested a combination of participatory tools at multiple levels, with systems thinking and concern for sustainable and diversified livelihoods. Bottom-up approaches guided the selection of technological interventions that could address the priority farming system challenges of the communities, leading to higher uptake levels and increased impact. Joint learning, appropriate technology selection, and the creation of an enabling environment such as the formation of farmer research groups, the establishment of innovation platforms, and capacity development for institutional and technical innovations were key to this study. The study concludes by identifying key lessons that focus more on matching innovations to community needs and geographies, systems orientation/integration of innovations, stepwise approaches to enhance the adoption of innovations, documenting farmers' capacity to modify innovations, building successful partnerships, and facilitating wider scaling of innovations for future implementation of agricultural research for development projects.

Action Research Systems Thinking CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA INNOVATION PARTNERSHIPS SCALING UP INTEGRATED CROP-LIVESTOCK SYSTEMS

Escenarios futuros de eventos extremos de precipitación y temperatura en México

Future changes of precipitation and temperature extremes in Mexico

Ernesto Ramos Esteban (2024, [Tesis de maestría])

Diferentes estudios a escala mundial indican un incremento en frecuencia de eventos climáticos extremos debido al calentamiento global y sugieren que podrían intensificarse en el futuro. El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar los posibles cambios de 12 índices climáticos extremos (ICE) de precipitación y temperatura en 15 regiones de México, el sur de los Estados Unidos y Centroamérica para un período histórico (1981-2010), un futuro cercano (2021-2040), un futuro intermedio (2041-2060) y un futuro lejano (2080-2099). Se utilizó el reanálisis ERA5 como referencia en la evaluación histórica de los modelos climáticos globales (MCG) y para las proyecciones se analizaron los ICE de diez MCG del Proyecto de Intercomparación de Modelos Climáticos, fase 6 (CMIP6), de acuerdo con dos escenarios de Vías Socioeconómicas Compartidas (SSPs), uno de bajas emisiones (SSP2-4.5) y otro de altas emisiones (SSP3-7.0). Los MCG reproducen muy bien los índices extremos de temperatura histórica y los días consecutivos secos, pero subestiman la lluvia promedio y la lluvia extrema en las zonas más lluviosas desde el centro de México hasta Centroamérica. Históricamente, se observaron tendencias positivas de las temperaturas extremas (TXx y TNn) en todas las regiones, pero sólo en algunas regiones fueron significativas, mientras que los índices de lluvia extrema (R95p, R10mm y R20mm) presentaron tendencias negativas, pero pequeñas. Las proyecciones indican que las temperaturas extremas podrían seguir incrementándose en el futuro, desde 2° C hasta 5° C a mitad y final de siglo, respectivamente. La contribución de la precipitación extrema arriba del percentil 95 (R95p) se podría incrementar entre un 10 % y 30 %, especialmente en la región subtropical, mientras que la precipitación podría disminuir en las regiones tropicales. Este estudio es el primero que analiza los cambios futuros de índices extremos del CMIP6 a escala regional (en 15 regiones) de México, el sur de Estados Unidos y Centroamérica.

Global-scale studies indicate an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events due to global warming and suggest that they could further intensify in the future. This study aims to assess potential changes in 12 extreme climate indices (ECI) related to precipitation and temperature in 15 regions in Mexico, the southern United States, and Central America for different periods: a historical period (1981-2010), a near future (2021-2040), an intermediate future (2041-2060), and a far future (2080-2099). The ERA5 reanalysis was used as a reference for the historical evaluation of global climate models (GCMs), and ECI from ten GCMs of phase 6 (CMIP6) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project were employed for the projections and examined under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios, one characterized by low emissions (SSP2-4.5) and another representing high greenhouse gas emissions (SSP3-7.0). The GCMs reproduce historical extreme temperature indices and consecutive dry days very well. However, they underestimate average and extreme rainfall from central Mexico to Central America in the wetter areas. Historically, positive trends in extreme temperatures (TXx and TNn) were observed across all regions. However, statistical significance was only present in certain regions, while extreme rainfall indices (R95p, R10mm, and R20mm) exhibited small negative trends. The projections suggest that extreme temperatures could continue to increase in the future, from 2°C to 5°C by the mid and late century, respectively. The contribution of extreme precipitation above the 95th percentile (R95p) could increase by 10% to 30%, particularly in the subtropical regions, while precipitation might decrease in tropical regions. This study is the first to analyze future changes in extreme indices from CMIP6 at a regional scale (across 15 regions) in Mexico, the southern United States, and Central America.

Centroamérica, CMIP6, escenarios SSP, extremos climáticos, intercomparación de modelos climáticos, México Central America, climate extremes, CMIP6, intercomparison of climate models, Mexico, SSP scenarios CIENCIAS FÍSICO MATEMÁTICAS Y CIENCIAS DE LA TIERRA CIENCIAS DE LA TIERRA Y DEL ESPACIO OCEANOGRAFÍA OCEANOGRAFÍA FÍSICA (VE R 5603 .04) OCEANOGRAFÍA FÍSICA (VE R 5603 .04)

Dipole-wind interactions under gap wind jet conditions in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, Mexico: A surface drifter and satellite database analysis

MAURO WILFRIDO SANTIAGO GARCIA (2019, [Artículo])

Gap wind jets (Tehuano winds) trigger supersquirts of colder water and mesoscale asymmetric dipoles in the Gulf of Tehuantepec (GT). However, the effects of successive gap wind jets on dipoles and their effects inside eddies have not yet been studied. Based on the wind fields, geostrophic currents, and surface drifter dispersion, this research documented three dipoles triggered and modified by Tehuano winds. Once a dipole develops, successive gap wind jets strengthen the vortices, and the anticyclonic eddy migrates southwestward while the cyclonic eddy is maintained on the east side of the GT. During the wind relaxation stage, the cyclonic eddy may propagate westward, but due to the subsequent re-intensification of the Tehuano winds, the vortex could break down, as was suggested by surface drifter dispersion pattern and geostrophic field data. The effect of the Tehuano winds was evaluating via eddy-Ekman pumping. Under Tehuano wind conditions, Ekman downwelling (upwelling) inside the anticyclonic (cyclonic) eddies may reach ~ -2.0 (0.5) m d-1 and decrease as the wind weakens. In the absence of Tehuano winds, Ekman downwelling inside the anticyclonic eddy was ~ 0.1 (-0.1) m d-1. The asymmetry of downwelling and upwelling inside eddies during Tehuano wind events may be associated with Tehuano wind forcing. © 2019 Santiago-García et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

article, dipole, leisure, Mexico, cold, ecosystem, factual database, geographic mapping, hurricane, Mexico, satellite imagery, season, water flow, wind, sea water, Cold Temperature, Cyclonic Storms, Databases, Factual, Ecosystem, Geographic Mapping, CIENCIAS FÍSICO MATEMÁTICAS Y CIENCIAS DE LA TIERRA CIENCIAS DE LA TIERRA Y DEL ESPACIO OCEANOGRAFÍA OCEANOGRAFÍA